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11-09-2012, 12:06 PM
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Playoff numbers for team success vs. expected:

RankGoalieSeries WExp SeriesDiff%CupsExp CupsDiff%
1Turk Broda1510.34+4.66+45%53.07+1.93+63%
2Charlie Gardiner53.10+1.90+61%10.28+0.72+257%
3Ed Belfour1917.77+1.23+7%11.65-0.65-39%
4Johnny Bower86.97+1.03+15%32.37+0.63+27%
5Tony Esposito98.43+0.57+7%00.76-0.76-100%
6Bernie Parent98.48+0.52+6%20.99+1.01+102%
7Georges Vezina32.60+0.40+15%32.60+0.40+15%
8Clint Benedict55.55-0.55-10%33.80-0.80-21%
9Frank Brimsek78.37-1.37-16%22.84-0.84-30%
10Bill Durnan57.4-2.40-32%23.05-1.05-34%

(Note: These are NHL numbers only, and for Vezina and Benedict Cups refers to league championships. My system can't really deal with games played against western teams because they didn't play a common schedule with the NHL champs. It should be noted however that during the NHL years Benedict was 4-0 in the series against the western champions with the Sens and Maroons while Vezina's Canadiens were 1-1 with the 1919 series not completed. If those results were incorporated it is likely that Benedict's playoff team record was as good or maybe even be a bit better than Vezina's.)

General comments:

There are a lot of options this round. Right now I'm open to considering anybody for a spot in my top four, as I really like all five of the new goalies that were added (all of them made the top 15 on my original list).

Based on the voting from last round, Brimsek looks to be a pretty safe bet to go next on the list, and I think justifiably so.

I'm still leaning towards Vezina slightly over Benedict but I have trouble placing the two of them relative to everybody else.

Some strong evidence has been presented so far for Charlie Gardiner. I rank peak and prime pretty highly, so I'm moving him up my list.

I gave some arguments for Bernie Parent last round, but upon further analysis of the numbers vs. backups I changed my mind and ended up with both Tretiak and Dryden ahead of him. Parent's early career save percentage numbers were very good relative to league average, but they weren't outstanding when compared to Doug Favell and late-career Jacques Plante, which could indicate they were somewhat team-aided. However, I do think Parent's insane peak and overall career should be enough to earn him a spot in the top four this round.

I think Tony Esposito's playoff failures are generally overblown. He also has a very strong regular season record, ranking #1 all-time among goalies in regular season GVT. That is in part because of the lack of parity in the 1970s, but in terms of career regular season value Esposito certainly rivals anybody in this group.

Johnny Bower has a save percentage case to be rated very highly in this group. From 1959 to 1968, he ranked 2-1-1-2-5-1-1-1-1-1 in the league in save percentage. How much the Leafs' defence had to do with those numbers is a key question, however.

Ed Belfour's playoff record may even be a bit better than the numbers above suggest, as his playoff save percentages were generally very good. He is #2 all-time among goalies in playoff GVT, although a big part of that was obviously because he played in the four playoff round era.

I'm still not sold on Bill Durnan. To rank him in the top four this round (which is higher than I currently have him), I'd like to see more evidence that his individual statistical performance was great, or at least that knowledgeable observers who weren't his coaches or teammates rated him very highly, based on his play and not just on his accomplishments (All-Stars, Vezinas, etc.).

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