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11-09-2012, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
I don't actually expect Hamilton type numbers, just saying that he was picked with the expectations of exhibiting the potential to be a franchise defenseman and having his stock skyrocket like Hamilton last season, but the numbers are bad and there's not much talk...
He's not putting up the numbers, but like I said he's not the type of guy that's going to rack up points. I mean he could pull a Tyler Myers and out of nowhere find a huge offensive game but even Myers has made it seem like his rookie season was an anomaly, not a trend.

You're not going to appreciate Reinhart by looking up his stats... the only way you're really going to understand how good he is is by watching him play. He's an absolute rock defensively, is calm under pressure, makes smart decisions with the puck, makes smooth, crisp breakout passes, and has a decent shot from the point. But he's not the type of guy who's going to frequently rush the puck up the ice or generate a ton of scoring chances. He's one of the best defenders in the WHL, maybe even in the CHL, when you look strictly at defensive game and he's just beyond smart in his positioning and such.

Now I'm not saying he's never going to put up points in the NHL because it all depends on the type of environment he's in, how he's utilized, etc. and some players (especially defensemen) don't find their offensive game until later. Look at Victor Hedman, he's got the defensive game down to a T, but he's still working on that offensive game and he's being utilized for defense, not offense and that's reflected by his zone starts.

Reinhart is also being utilized more for defense than offense, hence why he doesn't see much PP time despite his pretty decent point shot.

He'll be an amazing defenceman but I wouldn't put down a big chunk of cash on betting he'll put up big numbers. For reference, last season he put up 36 points in 58 games (0.62 points per game). However, the Oil Kings were stacked and averaged 4.31 goals per game last year. The league average? 3.38. That's a huge difference. When you adjust Oil Kings scoring to league average, Reinhart's adjusted numbers equate to 0.48 points per game which is a significant drop from the numbers he actually posted.

Sorry for the long post, but in summary:

1) You have to watch Reinhart to appreciate him. Just because he's not putting up numbers doesn't mean he's not a stud.
2) Reinhart, based on adjusted numbers and such, was far from the most offensively talented d-man in last years draft. From the WHL, Pouliot, Murray, Rielly, and Dumba were all well ahead of him in adjusted points per game.
3) He's not being utilized in an offensive role.
4) Sometimes defensemen take a while to find their offensive game.

I really like Ryan Suter as a comparable - aside from two fantastic seasons where he put up 45 and 46 points, he's hovered around the mid-high 30's. Suter is smooth and smart and an exceptional defenseman but he's not exactly an offensive dynamo. Same with Reinhart. Suter has averaged 0.44 points per game throughout his career which equates to 36 points in a full season and that's around where I'd expect Reinhart to be most years.

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