Hamilton or Toronto2/Markham
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11-09-2012, 08:07 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Originally Posted by
you are woefully uninformed about the current reality of both KW and the Hammer. it is laughable that anyone could possibly think that kw is a more viable NHL market than hamilton, today, tomorrow or the day after that.
Consider the 2006-11 intercensal population growth between the Hamilton-Burlington CMA and the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA.
From 2006-11, the Hamilton-Burlington CMA grew from 692,911 to 721,053, a growth of 4.1%. Most of that growth, of course, is attributable to Burlington, which is also considered to be a part of the GTA and is in that region in between Toronto city and Hamilton city.
From 2006-11, the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA grew from 451,253 to 477,160, a growth of 5.7%.
If you look at the Government of Ontario's population projections from the 2011-36 period, this difference in growth is expected to further diverge.
Firstly, the Government of Ontario considers both the Hamilton CMA and the Kitchener CMA to be in Central Ontario.
With respect to Central Ontario, the Government of Ontario predicts that:
"The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 814,000 or 28.2 per cent, from 2.89 million in 2011 to 3.7 million in 2036. The region’s share of provincial population will decline slightly from 21.6 to 20.9 per cent."
So the entire region will grow, but it's population share will decline. This decline is almost entirely attributed to the projected growth of the GTA.
Within Central Ontario, the Government of Ontario further predicts that:
"Three census divisions surrounding the GTA will continue to experience population growth significantly above the provincial average; they are Simcoe at 42.7 per cent, Waterloo at 41.8 per cent and Dufferin at 34.3 per cent."
Do you notice the absence of Hamilton from this list? When you calculate the percentage of growth predicted in these three census divisions, it becomes apparent that the growth in absolute numbers in Central Ontario and the only thing forestalling a rapid decline in the population share of Central Ontario are these three census divisions.
In terms of an ideal location to serve Southern Ontario outside of the GTA, the Kitchener CMA is on the border of Central Ontario and Southwestern Ontario. It is in between Hamilton and London, two towns with not insignificant populations. Compared to Hamilton, the main disadvantage is that it cannot draw from the Niagara region. But really, that should be considered a positive point because it allows Kitchener to sidestep the whole concern of Buffalo and how it draws some of its fanbase from the adjacent Niagara region.
Of course, I am not saying that the KW region can support a team today. I'm saying that I'd prefer to put a team in Markham now, and if another team is needed in Southern Ontario, I'd wait a couple of decades and put it in the KW region. Of course, Mississauga would also be a more immediately available option.
Moreover, if we are talking about the OP's comparison between Hamilton and the GTA, the Government of Ontario further predicts that:
"Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 2.74 million in 2011 to 3.42 million in 2036, an increase of 24.5 per cent, below the provincial growth rate of 32.7 per cent.
Growth in the other census divisions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will be significantly faster than the Ontario average, with the addition of over 2.1 million people to the suburban GTA.
Now, you can make race-based generalizations and say the "demographics" of York Region will not work out. This ignores the fact that, of course, in absolute numbers York Region has more white people than the Hamilton CMA. Moreover, a Markham team would be a "north of Toronto" team, and a "north of Toronto" team would encompass both York Region and Simcoe Region. If you refer back to the previous prediction about Central Ontario's growth, you will see that Simcoe Region is one of the few census divisions in Central Ontario that are expected to grow at a pace comparable to communities in the GTA. Simcoe Region, FYI, is north of Toronto; it borders York Region.
Last edited by saffronleaf: 11-09-2012 at
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