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11-10-2012, 01:04 PM
  #100
Epictetus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Just because a pitcher is lucky it means its time to deal him?
It's no different than a team taking a chance on a player who's unlucky while the team trading said player thinks he sucks because of his surface stats.

Luck is a symptom of regression. When you have a pitcher who is coming across as a top 20 pitcher but in reality is closer to a replacement level pitcher, you should move him before you know, reality settles in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
This my view only about Sabremetrics and why it maybe good to evaluate some part of a players game you cannot ignore the other aspects of the game. Which quite a few do in here by totally dismissing the stats the game was built on.
You keep saying this over and over and over with no adequate argument for why the other aspects that the 'few in here' miss should be held higher than stats, which are a mathematical representation of reality.

It reminds of the Republican commentators and other political commentators who claimed that Nate Silver was just trying to demoralize the Republican party and that his predictions aren't based in reality. Well, it turns out, they were wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
How can you project what a pitcher will become. What if a team suddenly adds payroll and their team becomes an offensive juggernaut that changes everything same if the team loses a bunch of players. You cannot predict rosters or makeup of teams anything past the present.
How does a team adding a bunch of 'offensive juggernauts' and 'payroll' change a pitcher's performance? More particularly, how does this affect a pitcher having an extreme amount of luck? Are you really saying that if Bautista, Edwin, and Lawrie are suddenly off the team, Morrow will be a different pitcher? If so, how does this exactly happen? And how does this affect Morrow's luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Was it lucky that the ball hit the 3rd base bag in the World Series which in turn changed momentum of a series.
Um, yes? How many times can you count over a course of the season that a ball hit in play ends up hitting the 3rd base bag?

And, how can you even prove that this play changed the momentum of the World Series?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
How to you quantify momentum, nerves, lucky bounces, playing conditions.
This is exactly my point, can you even prove that it exists if you cannot adequately quantify it? And even assuming that you can prove it exists, can you show me why I should hold this in a higher regard than statistics that present a correlation to what is most likely to occur?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Why is it that some pitchers get tons of run supports for their games while the same pitcher on the same team gets less?
This preciously shows why wins shouldn't be considered a legitimate stat; it depends greatly on luck rather than performance on a given day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
How do you quantify that? Its the same team, same hitters why with some guys on the mound they will put up 8 runs and the next night they will only put up 4 runs for the next guy?
I have to ask this again, what does this have to do with a pitcher's individual performance being predicated on luck?

How are you getting to a team's ability to score runs, which a pitcher has no control over.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
The game is played by humans and there are so many other factors that play into the game such as score of the game could dictate how a pitcher attacks a hitter or pitching around the 8th place hitter to get to the pitcher....that would screw up the 8th place hitters true batting rankings how does Sabre-metrics take that into account.
How does score of the game affect a pitcher's luck?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Listen I agree Sabre-metrics are the new wave that young people are attaching cause its easy to create a math formula to create an outcome but the game is played by human who react differently to all situations not by robots who are rigid and have no brain to compute different situations.
You're missing the bigger picture; sabremetrics are a mathematical representation that eliminates the conventional usage of prejudice, emotion, and bias to dictate reality.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
If it was so easy to predict all the results by Sabre-metrics why even play the games on the field....play them in some board room with computer and 30 nerds.
No sane person who uses sabremetrics has ever claimed that it represents all of reality. Instead, it is used as a method for better determining what happens in reality and what is likely to occur.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Give me a lucky pitcher who's wins 18 games vs a pitcher who's Sabre stats are better but only has 9 wins. At the end of the day its wins that make the playoffs.
The pitcher who "only has 9 wins" doesn't necessarily imply that he helps his team win less games than the pitcher who has won 18 games. I hope you know that right?

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