Thread: Proposal: Cal-Van-Edm
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11-10-2012, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
Jordan Eberle: SH%: 18.9; on-ice SH%: 12.8; ozone start%: 60

Jarome Iginlia: SH% 12.7 (~career avg); on-ice SH%: 10.1; ozone start%: 50

For comparison of on-ice SH%, Henrik Sedin, one of the best playmakers in the league, has a career on-ice SH% hovering around 10-11% at even strength.

Basically all of these numbers are provided to indicate that a) Eberle was very lucky last season, and b) he was given significant offensive high ground in comparison to Iginla. Those point totals you're throwing out aren't directly comparable. Personal shooting percentage alone, if Iginla had been as lucky as Eberle, he'd have scored 47 goals.

And no, Eberle is not a 19% career shooter. Two types of players have percentages anywhere near that high: guys who exclusively shoot super high percentage shots (e.g. Alex Tanguay, Andrew Brunette) and elite shooters (e.g. Brett Hull, Ilya Kovalchuk, Steven Stamkos, Sydney Crosby). And even most elite shooters don't break 15-16% career.
Why are you talking about Iginla / Sedin's SH%? Eberle is a much better finisher in front of the net than both. In fact, he's top5 in the league in that department.

He does fit into one of your groups - the one with guys who exclusively shoot super high percentage shots. The volume of shots he takes is pretty low.

For those two reasons, he has a high SH%. It will likely regress but not to the level that you assume. Furthermore, taking his SH% and applying it to a volume shooter like Iginla to project Iginla's potential goals is one of the most egregious misuse of statistics I've ever seen on this site.

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