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11-11-2012, 09:26 AM
  #490
OthmarAmmann
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aqib View Post
Municipal bankruptcies are extremely rare. Obviously there are a number of them all over the US right now but given the number of municipalities its still rare. Also while the US and the world in general has been through an economic calamity the worst is over and it is past the inflection point and things are getting better. With Tanger coming in you can expect more traffic at Westgate regardless of what the Coyotes do. The Federal Reserve will keep rates low for another year or two so Glendale will be able to refinance its debt.

Worst case scenario is that at some point in the future Glendale tells the Coyotes "we can afford this deal anymore so either take a lower payment or we'll let you leave" then Jamison can go to Hamilton, KC, Portland or wherever there is an open arena with no team or he can sell to PKP in QC or Hansen in Seattle and pocket a nice profit. I don't think the NHL will be as stringent about the relo fees as they were with Atlanta because this time its an owner that was helping the league in the first place being pushed out by his city.
Sure they're rare but like you said there have been more of them recently. COG has completely over extended itself. It's a classic Stockton. The market wouldn't even accept a tiny $50 mm issue from them... hell somebody could've picked that up as a hobby. Since that issue they're looking to put up probably over $100 mm in PV AMF obligation, serious internal control issues have come to light, and their seriously underfunded pension and OPEB are only a few years away from becoming cashflow.

The internal controls thing alone could easily 86 their refi, never mind the support for the Coyotes (which Moody's highlighted as a possible negative to their credit before the JIG lease was disclosed)

If the lease is broken the ownership group becomes a motivated seller/relocater, which gives a lot of leverage to the purchaser. They have outs but they're crappy outs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cobra427 View Post
Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....
Just two more weeks until the vote!

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