Hamilton or Toronto2/Markham
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11-12-2012, 11:14 AM
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
Join Date: May 2010
Originally Posted by
lots of numbers here.
yes, most people here are familiar with the
places to grow
mandate and yes, some areas are being forced to grow more than others .... but ...
1) you assume that population growth is all good. well, it is not. indeed, forced growth is very dangerous. opponents of
places to grow
correctly raise concerns about tenuous financing structures which will need to pay for forced infrastructure. existing property tax revenues cannot support these new expenses, the province has not been terribly generous, and forget about local industry tax revenue ... cities will be handing out incentive cash for decades to lure businesses into their regions, so gone are the days of healthy, mixed regional revenue sources. the game has now irreversibly changed when it comes to municipal financing.
currently, guelph is also being forced to grow well above its capacity and it is actually considering closing some pools and draining fountains because it simply cannot afford to build the sewers and roads it is being ordered to build by the province today. insanity on guelph council aside, things will only get worse. dont expect that KW or milton or any other place near the top of the growth rate chart will be able to afford even basic services, let alone chip in for a new NHL arena. it just wont happen. kw will be hard pressed to keep up with the costs of growth and it wont have a few hundred million laying around to buy a new arena. (as well, consider that it is k and w, two jurisdictions, ripe for contentious disagreement)
2) your numbers incorrectly assume comparability between regions with respect to mobility. KW does not, nor ever will have a dense urban core like the hammer. that's not the way that city evolved, nor is it the plan. KW is sprawl. moreover, KW is surrounded by smaller quaint hamlets, literally out in farmers fields. true, some will be swallowed by sprawl, but it is silly to think that folks in the golden triangle (kw, camb and guelph) are equally mobile to an arena in KW compared to folks in the GHA and Copps.
bet you dollars to donuts that someone in guelph would be no more likely to attend a game in KW than to attend one in the hammer ... ie., not that likely, especially in winter. so, you can take the forecast population numbers and immediately cut them in half because that many people are so far away from the urban core (or wherever an area might be built) that they are very unlikely to attend games. hamilton, on the other hand is already dense. and a much higher proportion of residents are within 25 minutes drive of Copps than will ever be within similar driving distance from any KW arena, despite growth figures.
and 3) you touch on demographics, but I think you fail to recognize the rabid interest folks in the hammer have in getting an NHL team. it will sell out just as fast as winnipeg (in fact, it has already). no such guarantee would exist in kw, especially if you assume it would draw from much further, inconvenient driving distances in surrounding areas. you think toronto is boringly conservative? kw is ten times that boring.
Well there's a big difference between Guelph and Waterloo region. Waterloo region doesn't have that problem, there is no danger of Kitchener having to cut off tertiary use of water to build more sewers. The cities cooperate on almost everything anyway, and besides, by the time someone decides to build an arena in Kitchener, the tri-cities will be amalgamated. Kitchener has extreme growth yet does all those things.
I think you're blinded by Guelph, an ugly, cesspit of a city with the University being it's only redeeming quality. Waterloo region is one of the richer cities and our city council doesn't worry about the money to build neccesary services, it worries about the public reaction to building a LRT system in the downtown core.
I drive a lot for my work, going to all the nearby cities to Waterloo Region (Guelph, Stratford, Woodstock) and in the city as well (Cambridge, Ayr etc.) and it's very easy to get around. I can get to Guelph in 20 minutes easily, Cambridge about 15 minutes, Stratford 40 minutes, Woodstock 30 minutes. It is easy to get around, far easier than getting to Hamilton. People from the nearby little towns get to Kitchener easily, no one from Wellesly, Elmira, Ayr, New Hamburg, Paris, St. Jacobs would think it's difficult to get to Kitchener. I think you're out of your mind if people in Guelph would think it's the same to go to Hamilton as it is Kitchener. It definitely is not.
Hamilton is poorer, has less industry growth, McMaster isn't exactly known for keeping people in Hamilton, UW and WLU are. Kitchener is on the 401 and the commercial center for the area (Which includes Guelph). In 20 years, I don't see how anyone can think Hamilton is a better city. Not to mention the hockey logistics, Hamilton is in the middle of two territories, Kitchener isn't in any.
Hamilton's arena needs serious upgrades, and even then it'll be an antiquated arena. Waterloo Region will be the better place for an NHL team in the near future, guarenteed.
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