View Single Post
Old
11-12-2012, 02:52 PM
  #252
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,221
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Again using Sabremetrics stats your creating a flaw into a players game that really with a complex math formula most managers, players, GM, casual fans can either live with or just don't care about.

Sure does he hit lefties as good as righties of course not we don't need a complex math formula to see that. I don't need a Harvard math degree to understand he hits righties better than lefties.

But now go outside of the Sabre stats world where there is more going on during a game than a isolated event that can be manipulated by a math formula.

So how many teams say in the AL East start a lefty and not just a lefty but a good one.

Yanks - Sabathia
Sox - Lester
Rays _ Price, Moore
Orioles - Chen

So in a series Choo may face each of those guys 4 times if that so out of 4 games your looking at 4 out of 16 ab's which is 25 % of his Ab's. If he hits .250 against them it means he would be 1 for 4 if they faced him 4 times in a game which is probably closer to 3 in most cases. Now each team carries a loogy and now here is where Sabremetrics flaws

You face the top of the order with the bullpen Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, EE and Choo

Lawrie gets on do you bring in the lefty to face Rasmus knowing if he crushes righties now there is 2 guys on for Jose and EE. Do you use up the lefty for Rasmus to minimize the damage and then let Choo face a righty.

Some teams may have 2 lefties in the pen but if the order went around again then they are facing righties and Choo's numbers are way better vs. righties.


So really I not even look at his .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ stats and I don't think most GM look at that and say **** we better not sign him cause those advanced stats may haunt us once a series if we face a lefty or in the 8th inning.

Game is played on the field not on a math sheet.
A 95 wRC just means that we plan his days off around guys like those starting (and still have him as a pinch hitter). He is competent, just not a star. The problem with Choo is that we'd have to give up assets to get him and would only have 1 year guaranteed.

Bjindaho is offline