: Blue Jays Discussion:
Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio
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11-12-2012, 03:02 PM
Diamond Joe Quimby
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Originally Posted by
Again using Sabremetrics stats your creating a flaw into a players game that really with a complex math formula most managers, players, GM, casual fans can either live with or just don't care about.
Sure doesn't hit lefties as good as righties of course not we don't need a complex math formula to see that. I don't need a Harvard math degree to understand he hits righties better than lefties.
But now go outside of the Sabre stats world where there is more going on during a game than a isolated event that can be manipulated by a math formula.
So how many teams say in the AL East start a lefty and not just a lefty but a good one.
Yanks - Sabathia
Sox - Lester
Rays _ Price, Moore
Orioles - Chen
So in a series Choo may face each of those guys 4 times if that so out of 4 games your looking at 4 out of 16 ab's which is 25 % of his Ab's. If he hits .250 against them it means he would be 1 for 4 if they faced him 4 times in a game which is probably closer to 3 in most cases. Now each team carries a loogy and now here is where Sabremetrics flaws
You face the top of the order with the bullpen Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, EE and Choo
Lawrie gets on do you bring in the lefty to face Rasmus knowing if he crushes righties now there is 2 guys on for Jose and EE. Do you use up the lefty for Rasmus to minimize the damage and then let Choo face a righty.
Some teams may have 2 lefties in the pen but if the order went around again then they are facing righties and Choo's numbers are way better vs. righties.
So really I not even look at his .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ stats and I don't think most GM look at that and say **** we better not sign him cause those advanced stats may haunt us once a series if we face a lefty or in the 8th inning.
Game is played on the field not on a math sheet.
You must've missed my post earlier that agreed with you and said that he would fit the lineup and fill a need. And, if you did want to sit him against a tough lefty, you could put an already signed Rajai Davis into the lineup to face a Lester or Sabathia. My main issue is the cost of acquisition as I mentioned before, and the opportunity cost involved in using those assets on a LF instead of a SP. That's all.
Your comment about 'the game being played on the field' would be even more funny if you saw who you were speaking to, but I'll digress. I'm not hiding behind the Sabremetrics, I was just trying to help you and Jones out by presenting statistics.
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