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11-12-2012, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Ryan34222 View Post
Uh huh..
Hamilton can't win.. As it reinvents itself, Toronto will still claim credit right?

Bright spots in mfg and natural resources you say, but Hamiltons not?
Sorry, I was a bit vague; I meant that Toronto, KW and Ottawa were bright spots in that they were not reliant on manufacturing or natural resource extraction. They're well positioned for the modern innovation economy that generates high paying jobs. Of course, economies that rely on natural resources can be very wealthy, like Calgary and Edmonton, but that obviously depends on the resource being exploited. When it comes to manufacturing, however, there isn't as much potential. Most developed economies have transformed from manufacturing-based economies to service-sector economies. Unless Canada enacts unprecedented protectionist policies, this tide will not turn.

But really, I don't think you should view it as some sort of win/loss credit/no-credit dichotomy with respect to Hamilton and the GTA. The GTA's northward and westward growth is merely an observed growth pattern that seems like it will continue into the foreseeable future. This will result in Hamilton becoming the eastern anchor of the GTA. I think that can have a serious impact on its economy; hopefully for the better. If you want to call it GTHA, which many municipal councilors already do, then that's fine too. It gives more explicit 'credit' to Hamilton.

Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
lots of numbers here. yes, most people here are familiar with the places to grow mandate and yes, some areas are being forced to grow more than others .... but ...

1) you assume that population growth is all good. well, it is not. indeed, forced growth is very dangerous. opponents of places to grow correctly raise concerns about tenuous financing structures which will need to pay for forced infrastructure. existing property tax revenues cannot support these new expenses, the province has not been terribly generous, and forget about local industry tax revenue ... cities will be handing out incentive cash for decades to lure businesses into their regions, so gone are the days of healthy, mixed regional revenue sources. the game has now irreversibly changed when it comes to municipal financing.

currently, guelph is also being forced to grow well above its capacity and it is actually considering closing some pools and draining fountains because it simply cannot afford to build the sewers and roads it is being ordered to build by the province today. insanity on guelph council aside, things will only get worse. dont expect that KW or milton or any other place near the top of the growth rate chart will be able to afford even basic services, let alone chip in for a new NHL arena. it just wont happen. kw will be hard pressed to keep up with the costs of growth and it wont have a few hundred million laying around to buy a new arena. (as well, consider that it is k and w, two jurisdictions, ripe for contentious disagreement)

2) your numbers incorrectly assume comparability between regions with respect to mobility. KW does not, nor ever will have a dense urban core like the hammer. that's not the way that city evolved, nor is it the plan. KW is sprawl. moreover, KW is surrounded by smaller quaint hamlets, literally out in farmers fields. true, some will be swallowed by sprawl, but it is silly to think that folks in the golden triangle (kw, camb and guelph) are equally mobile to an arena in KW compared to folks in the GHA and Copps.

bet you dollars to donuts that someone in guelph would be no more likely to attend a game in KW than to attend one in the hammer ... ie., not that likely, especially in winter. so, you can take the forecast population numbers and immediately cut them in half because that many people are so far away from the urban core (or wherever an area might be built) that they are very unlikely to attend games. hamilton, on the other hand is already dense. and a much higher proportion of residents are within 25 minutes drive of Copps than will ever be within similar driving distance from any KW arena, despite growth figures.

and 3) you touch on demographics, but I think you fail to recognize the rabid interest folks in the hammer have in getting an NHL team. it will sell out just as fast as winnipeg (in fact, it has already). no such guarantee would exist in kw, especially if you assume it would draw from much further, inconvenient driving distances in surrounding areas. you think toronto is boringly conservative? kw is ten times that boring.
1. There is no central command economy forcing citizens in Canada to move to KW. KW is attracting people because of what it has to offer. To characterize this as some sort of forced growth is disingenuous. While different municipalities have experienced different growing pains, I think it is an oversimplification to suggest that all municipalities will experience particular growing pains. Parts of the GTA, such as Mississauga, Brampton, and Vaughan have experienced rapid growth over the past decade -- more rapid that what KW will likely experience in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the growing pains were not uniform among them and were not that severe. Obviously KW must work to put in place the necessary framework to absorb the foreseeable growth. I think, considering KW's track record, they are competent enough to do that.

I studied Political Science for my undergrad, and I know that, at the very least, kids across Ontario that studied Political Science had to learn about economic clusters and the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) hub that KW has become. There is tremendous potential for KW.

2. While I agree that KW doesn't have a major urban core, it does have a core in Kitchener. The population isn't large enough yet; ~500K live in the tri-city area. But with LRT developments, it is clear that KW wants the tri-city area to integrate more. Over the past five years, the densification of KW, especially in Waterloo, has been pretty crazy. Numerous condos have gone up.

As I said, I don't think KW is ready for an NHL team now. Hamilton is a better option for the present. But if I were the NHL, I'd put a team in Markham, and wait a couple of decades and then put a team in KW. When KW continues to grow rapidly, and continues to have produce more and more entrepreneurs and businesses (big and small), I think the NHL may regret their choice if Hamilton does not pivot from their manufacturing base and into a more modern innovation economy. Mississauga would also be an immediately available option.

3. The demographics thing is pretty nonsensical. KW has produced a lot of NHL talent and the region absolutely loves the Kitchener Rangers. And to characterize the area as conservative and boring is really, really silly. I'd guess that you've never lived there or experienced the night life there or interacted with locals and the transient student populations. There's nothing boring or conservative about it. If you want me to, I can give you specific recommendations; places to check out if you are planning to go to KW.

Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
ah, I guess we will just have to agree to disagree, Faidh ar Rud Eigin. clearly you are a kw fan, blind to the several downturns this year, buying full in to the rosey presumptive forecasts from city hall and chambers of commerce. housing starts are down this year in kw and unemployment is up. you seem unable to see much value in neighbouring areas, especially that cesspit of guelph where both actually outranked kw. but fair enough, selective vision, i get that. and dont worry that kw, led by rim has been hit very hard this past couple of years, it will recover, as will the entire area.

fwiw, i think kw is undersized, isolated and not as rich as you think, and that hamilton is well positioned for the future with major development downtown and new innovation. no worries tho, i understand it's much easier to think of hamilton as a decrepit steeltown. and it's much easier to think that waterloo and laurier are producing brilliant minds and that mac is full of dummies, even thought it's just not true. and never mind that hamilton is strategically a much better location for an NHL franchise. i mean, really, why would the league want to encourage natural rivalries with the leafs and sabre when fans will be flying up from florida and los angeles to see the kw snowballers.

sorry man, kw will never get an nhl team.
KW may never get an NHL team, but on that note, I don't think Hamilton will ever get an NHL team either. More importantly, relating to the topic of discussion, I don't think it would be prudent for the NHL to go into Hamilton when Markham, Mississauga, and, a couple decades down the line, KW all are or will become viable.

Also, I think it's quite cute that you think Hamilton is a natural rival with the Leafs. Only in Hamilton. No one in Toronto considers Hamilton a "rival." No one in Toronto even considers Buffalo as a real "rival" from a city v. city perspective. They've had our number in the past in terms of hockey and we've played some good games, so there's some hockey animosity. But no real city v. city rivalry like Toronto and Montreal. I know Hamiltonians consider the whole CFL rivalry thing to be huge, but people in Toronto generally don't care about the CFL.

I'd also wager that more people in the US would know of KW than Hamilton. Of course, chances are the vast majority would know neither. But schools like UW have gained some ground in the US for its engineering / math / science reputation, and companies like RIM have also brought some publicity to the area. Other companies have also established massive campuses in KW, like Google.

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