Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-12-2012, 08:35 PM
Join Date: Jul 2010
Originally Posted by
When you're trying to project an 84 game season total into an 80 game season total...
There's more to it than that though. Take 3 more seconds and look over the teams in the Adam's division that year. It wasn't just Oates, the Bruins and Lafontaine, the Sabres. Look at the amount of players also on the Habs, Nords and Whalers that posted career years or pretty much matched their previous career years in 92/93. I'm not just talking about slightly better than their norm kinda thing either, most of them spiked well above anything they had done before or after.
It's like 2-4 players per team for pete's sake and again, Adam's division scoring increased by 23% not the league 4%.
Sundin(21% better), Ricci(39%), Lafontaine(41%), Mogilny(19%), Damphousse (3%), Muller(matched his career high), Lebeau(38%), Oates(23%), Juneau(42%), Sanderson(33%), Cassels(25%), Zalapski(14%).
The list goes on and on for that year in that division.
You can't just ignore this many concentrated anomalies. It has to be accounted for before you can simply say Adam's and Pat's season are worth 150 in the 80's because the value Adjusted Stats assigns those points, says so.
That's ridiculous, seriously.
But you're not just using them as a starting point are you! You're using them as the start and the finish and THAT is my whole problem with it all in the first place.
Again, for hopefully the last time...it's not so much the math or the value that AS's assigns that is flawed(even though it most certainly is in the way it handles the top 1% and outliers). It's the value that AS's gets in the equation far too often, that is.
There has to be context!
You keep saying there are all these indications that it could be done yet ignore the indicators that say it wouldn't like Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy and Stastny who are as good or better than anyone you mentioned and each of them had better help and sometimes far superior circumstances to do it but didn't.
I'm not spending much time on this thread because math really bores me and I don't understand all the technical mumbo jumbo (more due to a lack of interest than anything else) but I do understand the concepts.
But if you want to go down the unbalanced schedule route with Ottawa being in that division you better look at the early Oilers more closely with the Jets, Cancuks and Kings as whipping boys for the Oil.
My bet is that you won't do that. Or that you move the goalposts again.
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