Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-13-2012, 04:56 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fredericton, NB
Originally Posted by
You can't get more common ground or be any more accurate there. It's already 100% accurate!
Of course, since adjusted scoring applies a flat multiplier to each player's stats in the same season, then they're also 100% accurate in that sense. It's an unnecessary step, but it doesn't make it any less accurate. A player 10% ahead of another player in raw stats will remain 10% ahead in adjusted stats, barring blips from rounding etc.
Originally Posted by
As far as proving that AS's pulls everyone to the average, that's easy in principal, hard in the data you need.
Overpass did a measurement of scoring by tier in the 80's.
You would need his info and list of players broken down by tier from a year in the 80's.
Keep the tier groupings the same but run all players through Adjusted Stats. Then recalculate what % each tier contributed to league scoring.
See what happens.
If the %'s change, if the top 2 tiers drop in % while the bottom 2 tiers increase in %, you have your answer.
It won't happen, because adjusted scoring only applies a coefficient (essentially the same coefficient) to every player in the same season, at least in modern seasons. So other than small blips caused by rounding etc, the % by tier will be the same, mathematically speaking.
In a league with 1000 goals, say you have the following:
Tier 1: 500 goals (50%)
Tier 2: 300 goals (30%)
Tier 3: 150 goals (15%)
Tier 4: 50 goals (5%)
If you're adjusting to a league scoring level of 1200 goals, you'll essentially be increasing everyone's goals by 20%, and you'll have:
Tier 1: 600 goals (50%)
Tier 2: 360 goals (30%)
Tier 3: 180 goals (15%)
Tier 4: 60 goals (5%)
Strictly speaking, this isn't entirely true, because players with zero goals will always remain at zero goals. So in seasons with relatively low goals per game, the bottom tier % will decrease a little, while in seasons with relatively high goals per game, the bottom tier % will increase a little. You don't need to run data for this one, it's simply based on an understanding of what adjusted scoring does, mathematically.
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