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11-13-2012, 04:56 PM
#333
Iain Fyffe
Hockey fact-checker

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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 You can't get more common ground or be any more accurate there. It's already 100% accurate!
Of course, since adjusted scoring applies a flat multiplier to each player's stats in the same season, then they're also 100% accurate in that sense. It's an unnecessary step, but it doesn't make it any less accurate. A player 10% ahead of another player in raw stats will remain 10% ahead in adjusted stats, barring blips from rounding etc.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 As far as proving that AS's pulls everyone to the average, that's easy in principal, hard in the data you need. Overpass did a measurement of scoring by tier in the 80's. You would need his info and list of players broken down by tier from a year in the 80's. Keep the tier groupings the same but run all players through Adjusted Stats. Then recalculate what % each tier contributed to league scoring. See what happens. If the %'s change, if the top 2 tiers drop in % while the bottom 2 tiers increase in %, you have your answer.
It won't happen, because adjusted scoring only applies a coefficient (essentially the same coefficient) to every player in the same season, at least in modern seasons. So other than small blips caused by rounding etc, the % by tier will be the same, mathematically speaking.

In a league with 1000 goals, say you have the following:

Tier 1: 500 goals (50%)
Tier 2: 300 goals (30%)
Tier 3: 150 goals (15%)
Tier 4: 50 goals (5%)

If you're adjusting to a league scoring level of 1200 goals, you'll essentially be increasing everyone's goals by 20%, and you'll have:

Tier 1: 600 goals (50%)
Tier 2: 360 goals (30%)
Tier 3: 180 goals (15%)
Tier 4: 60 goals (5%)

Strictly speaking, this isn't entirely true, because players with zero goals will always remain at zero goals. So in seasons with relatively low goals per game, the bottom tier % will decrease a little, while in seasons with relatively high goals per game, the bottom tier % will increase a little. You don't need to run data for this one, it's simply based on an understanding of what adjusted scoring does, mathematically.