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11-14-2012, 10:53 AM
  #598
Greg02
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ola View Post
Yeah, and he got 7 pts in 11 games which projects to 52 pts for the season. I think a reasonable expectations for him in the AHL this season would have been 50-60 pts, or a little little more than that if he would have gotten regular time on a top PP unit and first line.

A player who needs three years to come close to a PPG in College don't score a PPG in the AHL. Its a tougher league. No matter what, a player who scores a PPG in the AHL is a player who plays the style of a real point getter too, who runs a PP and so forth. Kreider is also not even remotely that player. He has very little creativity with the puck, and is also not that good at protecting the puck down low or around the net.

But, normally a player who do not dominate in the AHL don't like score 50-60 pts in the NHL. But Kreider could definitely be the, not so uncommon, exception to that rule. IE a type who does certain things really well and hence will be able to keep doing the same thing in the NHL as he has done in the AHL. Like no D in the world wants to find themselves shoulder to shoulder in a footrace with Kreider. No D in the AHL and no D in the NHL. Kreiders shot is decent, I wouldn't read much into his shooting percentage in the AHL after 11 games, he will start to score there and he will keep burying shots in the NHL too.

Also, its important to remember the huge diffrence between the NHL and the AHL. The AHL is a unorganized chaos and the NHL atleast is a organized chaos, or just organized. Its very diffrent leagues. I've seen plenty of Europeans for example be able to play one style in the AHL, but a diffrent style -- more natrual to them -- in the NHL. The biggest relevant diffrence here is probably that in the NHL you can basically exclude certain "risks". Its hard to put an exact finger on, but something like this almost. In the NHL you trust your D's to be able to do certain things. So you do not cover for a D in the case he would fail to execute that play. Instead you use the players you have on the ice to achieve other things. If Nik Lidström got a puck on his stick in his own end, 5 players on Detroit is thinking offense and are 100% convinced they still will be attacking 5 seconds later. If Jyri Niemi got the puck in his own end, 10 skaters on the ice is thinking both offense and defense at the same time. Like you can clearly see it after just watching 5 minutes of hockey in the AHL. One team lifts the puck out of their own end, Jyri Niemi scrambles back to fetch the puck. 4 other players on his team is backchecking and 5 players on the other team is forchecking. When he gets the puck, the backchecking players will keep backchecking untill the puck is at the other side of the rink (simply, they don't stop worrying defensively just becase they have the puck), in a sense, and the team forechecking will do a bit of both (in the NHL, if Lidström fetch a puck, many teams just sits back, so it differs in this sense too). In the AHL, a Rico Fata who can be ahead of everyone everywhere on the ice can have a field day. In the NHL you can think much more. In the NHL, you also actually get more room if a misstake is made for example, beacuse nobody is "counting" on it. I am sure to a extent that a player like Kreider gets more avg chances in the AHL, while in the NHL, he will get fewer chances but the ones he get will be much better.
Thanks for this post. It was really informative and interesting.

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