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11-14-2012, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Whydidijoin View Post
The numbers do not support your position. All players on average hit their prime around 27 and have it last around 5 years. It's a physical thing. It just takes longer for some positions to translate that to the NHL.

As for this "lack of performance" after 27, it is just flat out not true anyway and the facts do not support you. 11 of the players in the top-20 in scoring last season were 27 or older. 3 more of those remaining 9 would be UFA eligible July 1st (one other was a defenseman). The average age of the top-20 is over 28.4, even after the youth movement after the lockout.

In fact, just took a quick glance at 21-30 in scoring. 9 of those 10 were over UFA age, with multiple in their 30s..

I have never seen anything on reaction time decline being that young. Would like some sources.

Even though if it's not noticeable until well into the 30s, it doesn't really matter, does it.

Strength peaking at the start of your prime makes perfect sense.

Is this true? Individual year salaries don't count.

Well, at any rate, the max contract wouldn't drop lower than any possible contract that will be signed, so it is still irrelevant.
I did work on playoff performance. It did not go far back into the 90s, late 90s and later. The top performers at forward were very predominantly pre-27 and cup winners only. I am old, over 60. Some of the research to which I am referring was done as far back as the 50s and 60s. The reaction time stuff is from pinball type setups (eye/hand and eye/foot) that was related to measuring braking times/reaction in vehicles (I was one of many test subjects). It also studied the effect of alcohol on those times. I got it while studying psychology. It is not stuff that I grabbed off the internet.

I am aware of the background for what you present. It is stuff that is considered axiomatic from some GMs. I don't know all of the background, but the axioms spurred some of my own investigation which was in part aimed at the age composition of winning teams.

Another small piece for you is that there is a Finnish medical study stating that there is medical evidence for almost universal deterioration of groin and hip at age 31 for professional goalies. Tim Thomas is very much an outlier. I did check for the generational goalies and did find decline at that age despite their continuing play, Roy, Brodeur, etc.
Originally Posted by kemisti View Post
Reg. peformance

Also from players who were top20 in scoring last season and were older than 26, some had had better seasons when they were younger.

Spezza was 22. As was Kovy. Thornton was 26, same with Pominville.

Though I didn't adjust with differences in league-wides scoring.
Thank you for this data. I had not seen it. It is very supportive of my point.

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