Thread: Proposal: Hemsky has his value gone up?
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11-15-2012, 04:54 AM
Jake the Snake Man
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Originally Posted by Iceonfire View Post
Seriously though, some people undervalue Hemsky.

He had as many goals in March as he did the rest of the year combined. He went on to post 8 points in 9 games at the WCs.

Hemsky is healthy now and very much worth the 5 mil he is signed to. IF he stays healthy, the Oilers top 6 is easily one of the scariest in the league.
This is something to brag about with a young player beginning to break out or who finally made it onto a good line, or a player who was playing hurt for the rest of the season and got better, returning to previously established form. Other than that, this is not a good thing.
As much as people want to believe the last one to three months of the season will be indicative of performance in the following year, it really isn't, especially for veteran players.

If his injuries really are behind him and he doesn't have to play a more perimeter game in order to ensure that they stay behind him, then he's a valuable player. All things being equal (and healthy), he should probably get 15-20 goals and 35-40 assists in 70ish games. If any one of the Oilers' young forwards really breaks out on Hemsky's line, those numbers could grow considerably. That doesn't mean his trade value is any higher, because not every team has three first overall forwards poised for stardom that can line up with Hemsky.

A 50-60 point winger who 1. doesn't have a remarkable two-way game, 2. regressed considerably last year, 3. has a bit more upside but also 4. is a huge injury risk, is not worth 5 million on any planet. The only forwards who have a cap hit as high as Hemsky's and are not clearly more valuable are Horcoff and Gomez. Hemsky only reaches that value if he stays healthy and breaks 60 points.

Let's see Hemsky AND Hall and RNH stay healthy before saying anything remotely like "the Oilers top 6 is easily one of the scariest in the league."

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