Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-15-2012, 09:42 AM
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Ho Chi Minh City
To summarize- averaging seasons assumes that there is an average performance that all players will be in range of. This is a proven methodological error when analyzing human performance. Outliers drive the averages. The number of outliers in a season varies, not to mention extreme outliers. The variance between groups of players varies season over season. The variance between players varies over seasons. Using a scalar does not account for this. Using a scalar dependant on averaging is a proven methodological error.
The value of a goal is dependant on its circumstances and certainly dependant on the team results. If a player scores 40% of his team's goals then obviously his goals have more value on the surface than a player who scores 10% of his team's goals. Using average goals per season doesn't address this at all. Let's talk game winning goals.
AS is so obviously just an attempt to predict what a player would score in a different season. Redefining it to combat criticism is inefffectual.
One variable in AS is average goals per season. That fails the smell test and it fails scientific scrutiny. AS may be a part of an argument about comparing players across eras if the parties agree on its value but it is in no way the final word. Its of very little value if the parties disagree on it value and probably takes the debate off topic.
Other variables used are also debatable.
I would conclude that AS has very limited value in any discussion.
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