Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-15-2012, 10:34 AM
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Ho Chi Minh City
Originally Posted by
The irony is just dripping off of this paragraph.
Of course the onus is on you. You are making the specific claim that AS normalizes the stats. You need to prove that in order for it to be valid. (You cannot prove it, of course, because it is not true, as I have demonstrated logically, mathematically, and graphically.)
What does this even mean? How are seasons averaged? And even if seasons are averaged, that does not necessarily mean that seasons are normalized, which is what the study warns against. Averaging is not the same thing as normalization.
And as I've said over and over and over again, the main points of that study are irrelevant because AS does not do what it claims it does.
No you don't, and averaging is not normalization anyway. It's almost like you keep making the same assertions over and over again, ignoring arguments to the contrary. There's a large difference between ignoring an argument and rebutting it.
Presumably you're saying that outliers need to be considered when deriving an average, since the study admonishes not to automatically exclude outliers. Since AS does not do that, no problem?
There's no debate. You make a point, it's rebutted. You make the same point, it's rebutted again. You make the same point again, and it's rebutted yet again. Etc. That's not a debate.
That's a rather large shifting of the goalposts. So now when you say a bell curve, you don't actually mean a bell curve? If you don't actually mean a bell curve, then that study is going to be useless to you, since it discusses using actual bell curves.
Seasons are not averaged with each other, and outliers are not excluded. So...?
Please. I've repeated the salient points of the study back to you many times now. For example:
This is the first point.
AS does not do this
. As I demonstrated many pages ago, adjusted scoring results follow a power-law curve (they have to, because that's what the raw data does).
This means that in adjusted scoring, the median perfomer is below the mean level of performance
. Therefore AS follows along exactly with what the study says it should do.
No, see right here this part is talking about the difference betwen Gaussian (normal) and Paretian (power law) distributions.
As such the comments only apply to a situation where a normal curve is assumed, which AS does not do
. Therefore this is also irrelevant, as I have pointed out over and over and over....
So in summary, it's not that the evidence from the study is being ignored, it's that the evidence from the study has been responded to, rebutted, and demonstrated to be irrelevant to AS.
Nonsense (as far as I can tell). How does AS average seasons? I'll have to admit I'm not 100% sure I understand what you mean by "averaging seasons", as you've done a poor job explaining yourself.
Ah, that's not what is being done. You're still stuck on the "magically transport to another time and place" interpretation of AS, which is of course incorrect. Another assertion that is made over and over, ignoring arguments to the contrary...
No it doesn't. In a season with low enough scoring, even an extreme outlier would be adjusted upwards. If Gretzky had scored 200 points in a 3.5 GPG league, and AS was using 4.0 GPG as a baseline, his totals would be adjusted upwards, despite his being an "outlier" (as you use the term, though he's not really an outlier since we have no sampling issues.)
In fact, you could set the arbitrary baseline number in AS so high that everyone in hockey history would be adjusted upwards, if you wanted to. Say you adjust everyone to a 20.0 goals-per-game standard. Outliers (if there really are any) would be adjusted upwards along with everyone else, because as I've said over and over again, everyone in the same season is adjusted in the same direction. And since everyone is adjusted in the same direction, there is no normalization.
Prove it? AS uses average goals per season in its formula. That is proof is it not?
I have stated this over and over ad nauseum and have never received a direct response. AS uses average goals per season, yes or no?
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