Thread: Speculation: Winnipeg Jets 2013 Draft Talk
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11-15-2012, 03:59 PM
  #157
Grind
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2 things

#1

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Throughout the year some of them were a lot higher. Olsen was considered 51 in Oct looking at consensus made by Copper and Blue (combining Bob McKenzie, ISS, Scouting Report, Button and Future Considerations). Lowry fell through the year due to mono. Telegin with Russian factor.

I didn't mean the rankings just before the draft but talking about throughout the year and obviously there are some that fall for good reason... But this is all probably a wasted post, sinceI think you know what I meant when I mean the ones that fall due to "shiny new toy" syndrome, not for legitimate reasons/concerns.

I just meant some people fall for a reason but some don't actually have a good reason, and those are the ones to capitalize on if they are BPA.
totallly agree with this, these are the fallers you should be targeting (not skaters who have "fallen", but more so skaters who have been "passed"). This is what it seems we have been doing, and if two of the three (Lowry, Kosmo, Tele) turn into full time players our record in 3rd/4th round will look fantastic (vs statistical expectation). Obviously true north has shown an aversion to any sort of "questionable" player qualities what so ever so i have no concerns about them gambling on young "head case" that's just not their style.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
There's only so many prospects you can have signed at one time. There is such thing as too much, so TNSE would have to balance that.
not to mention the rate of return (statistically, so YMMV) does not drop off steadily and is really a gamble in all rounds after the second.

based on 1990's drafting, about 63% of first round picks become "career" nhl'ers, or play more then 200 games in the show, and 50-60% of those play 500 +.

the drop off from the first round to the second round is intense, it drops to approx 25% chance of playing 200 games if taken in the second round.

from the 3rd to the 7th its statistically a crap shoot: so few picks make it that they could almost all be from the same round.

so really, the only place it seems to make sense to trade back in, is the later rounds. if you can flip a fifth for a 6th and a 7th you might as well, but in general, the odds definitely favor trading up into tthe first to rounds, and back from the middle two (4th-fifth)

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