Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-15-2012, 05:15 PM
Just a Fool
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Guelph, Ont
Originally Posted by
Good to have you back!
It is a replacement for raw stats in the sense that it takes the information contained in the raw stats, and adds more information. You really don't lose anything intra-season, and it allows better inter-season comparisons.
No, it's not a replacement.
First off, you and countless others have repeatedly tried to say that AS's are not predictions, they are just an estimate of value.
In what formula would you replace Raw data with estimations when the formula still has equations to be done that need to run off the Raw data?
I have already shown that AS's have inaccuracies in them compared to the raw stats. You call them rounding errors, whatever, it doesn't matter, they're there.
If you replace the Raw stats with Adjusted stats before all other factors are determined, you are working from a modified and inaccurate base for those other factors to be used on.
Me and my friends? What with all the lolcats and great big bold fonts, you seem to be taking this quite personally. Chill.
Because it's god damned frustrating when I say that all info should be used and weighed, that nothing should be thrown out. That Adjusted Stats should never be used as a final answer, that they are only part of the equation, along with everything else.
That when things that are proven to exist like Tier scoring changes, special teams and inflated value of DPE points are deemed as "conjecture" not because they don't exist but only because no one has figured out how to incorporate them globally yet.
That in one sentence I'm being told that Adjusted stats are only a measure of value and not a prediction, only to have them being used as exactly that in the next sentence telling me that this player actually did outscore that player over this time frame.
That after saying and then hearing all this, I am then told my views are all but "barbaric" or that I have some kind of bias against AS's.
No sir, I think I have a pretty balanced view of AS's and what their true weight should be. A weight that will change per comparison because they are part of the equation and not the equation itself.
That it's not I with a bias against AS's, it's that I have a bias against people who are biased for AS's.
I have never said to throw out AS's. I have always said to use both.
Yet throughout this thread, there are numerous examples of people just throwing Raw stats out or the avocation of that behavior and I'm not the impartial one eh...riiight.
How much is the "inaccuracy" inherent to the DPE figures? How does this "inaccuracy" compare to that from the basic change in scoring level? If the latter is greater, then yes, AS are more fair in this case. You're making assumptions about the degree of these inaccuracies, so to speak. If you have something solid to show that the former is significantly greater than the latter, please share.
See...this leads to even more frustration. Common sense.
Delving into DPE values, it doesn't take long to see that there's some funky **** and, at times, some large anomalies going on.
Everyone knows there's some issues there, we just can't figure out exactly where or how yet and therefore can't address it with an exact offsetting value yet.
If your car is acting up and you haven't been to the mechanic to figure out exactly what's wrong with it yet. You might continue to drive it around town to run errands and go to work (using DPE values against other DPE values) but you're not going to drive out of town or go on a long trip with it(take DPE values out of the DPE) because you simply can't trust it.
Based on your comments it would seem that AS should have something of a tier adjustment added to it. If that were done, this objection of yours would presumably disappear, and raw stats would be rendered even more obsolete for this type of analysis.
It would help to give the values AS's relay more weight for the equation but I am NEVER going to replace Raw stats completely.
I think I have made that pretty clear by now and why.
Last edited by Rhiessan71: 11-15-2012 at
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