Adjusted stats - how valuable?
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11-15-2012, 06:30 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
No, actually it isn't and this should have been said at the time instead of simply presenting the AS's values as the answer which IS exactly what you and other did! TO WHICH MY POINT MOST DEFINITELY STILL STANDS!!!
Jagr was not a "one-man wrecking crew" for all 9 seasons in question, nor was Gretzky an older player who abandoned defense for all 9 either.
What you're describing is what happened in the last 4-5 years, not the first 4-5 years.
The way I see it is that Gretzky was a better and more valuable player in the last 3-4 years than Jagr was in the first 3-4 years.
They go back and forth pretty even in the middle leaving us 2-3 years of higher play from each to compare (Gretz in the early 90's vs Jagr in the late 90's) and I don't see the same gap there that you do apparently and I certainly do not see that gap, if one really exists, having enough value to overcome Gretzky's superiority in his late years vs Jagr's early years.
Here's some more stats (some actual, some adjusted) for you ('91-99):
ES points (actual)
ES points (adj.)
ESGF/ESGA ratios (est. actual)
Gretzky: 1.53, 0.95, 1.24, 0.75, 0.68, 0.94, 1.19, 0.97, 0.69
Jagr: 0.96, 1.22, 1.74, 1.29, 1.71, 1.50, 1.47, 1.56, 1.37,
ESGF/ESGA (est. on/off)
Gretzky: 1.10, 1.00, 1.23, 0.88, 0.74, 1.25, 1.06, 1.34, 0.78
Jagr: 0.85, 1.20, 1.42, 1.35, 1.78, 1.44, 1.88, 1.63, 1.70
Avg. of ratios '91-99
Gretzky: 0.99 (est. actual), 1.04 (est. on/off)
Jagr: 1.42 (est. actual), 1.47 (est. on/off)
Gretzky's second best actual ES GF/GA ratio was less than Jagr's 7th best, and his best on/off ratio was less than Jagr's 7th best.
Gretzky's overall effectiveness at ES was nothing like it was in his peak years. He was racking up points on the PP in the early 90s, with a prime Robitaille, Sandstrom, and an older Kurri, with Blake and/or Zhitnik on the points. Meanwhile, Jagr was getting limtied or virtually no PP time in the early 90s, deferred to Lemieux running the PP when he has healthy, and then ran the PP with an older Francis (until he left) with Kevin Hatcher as the best PP d-man (he was not exactly Leetch). Gretzky had a substantial advantage due to skill, experience and opportunity in '91 & '92... they were close in points in '93 & '94, but Jagr was much more effective at ES... and then Jagr was clearly much better after and including '95.
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