Thread: Proposal: Hemsky has his value gone up?
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11-15-2012, 08:44 PM
  #92
Iceonfire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
This is something to brag about with a young player beginning to break out or who finally made it onto a good line, or a player who was playing hurt for the rest of the season and got better, returning to previously established form. Other than that, this is not a good thing.
As much as people want to believe the last one to three months of the season will be indicative of performance in the following year, it really isn't, especially for veteran players.

If his injuries really are behind him and he doesn't have to play a more perimeter game in order to ensure that they stay behind him, then he's a valuable player. All things being equal (and healthy), he should probably get 15-20 goals and 35-40 assists in 70ish games. If any one of the Oilers' young forwards really breaks out on Hemsky's line, those numbers could grow considerably. That doesn't mean his trade value is any higher, because not every team has three first overall forwards poised for stardom that can line up with Hemsky.

A 50-60 point winger who 1. doesn't have a remarkable two-way game, 2. regressed considerably last year, 3. has a bit more upside but also 4. is a huge injury risk, is not worth 5 million on any planet. The only forwards who have a cap hit as high as Hemsky's and are not clearly more valuable are Horcoff and Gomez. Hemsky only reaches that value if he stays healthy and breaks 60 points.

Let's see Hemsky AND Hall and RNH stay healthy before saying anything remotely like "the Oilers top 6 is easily one of the scariest in the league."
Semin- $7mil
Ruutu- $4.75mil
Leino- $4.5mil
Cammalleri- $6mil
Lecavalier- $7mil
Grabovski-$5mil
Havlat-$5mil

GMs, Agents, etc... have decided Hemsky is worth $5mil. It is nice that you have an opinion, but in the real hockey world it doesn't matter.

Top 6 forwards with that much upside are worth keeping. Watch some of Hemsky's highlights and you will see why he gets injured. He is a high risk, high reward player. He always has been.

For a player that for most of his career has been near PPG, you take that risk...

On top of the fact that he loves Edmonton and actually wants to stay. Ask the fans in NJ how much Parise is worth, or how about Nash in Columbus?

Id rather overpay someone who wants to stay, then have to overpay to keep them from leaving...

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