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11-16-2012, 07:37 AM
  #245
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazerbullet
Listen, the fact that population is bigger doesn't automatically mean that it produces the best genius. But the odds are higher that it will do and you can't deny it.
The problem is that the odds are always infinitesimally small, so increases in population might not have as much impact as you'd expect.

Flip a coin. Chances are 50/50 that it comes up heads. Still, sometimes the coin comes up heads 5 times in a row.

Now, let's assume that genius is produced by formal training at a constant rate. It apparently isn't, but let's assume. And just to make it simple, let's say that the population of trained hockey players is 3x larger today than in the 1950s.

If the "coin" comes up tails 3 times in a row, we don't get a generational defenseman. It's that simple. If the odds break the wrong way, the best defenseman can come out of the smaller population and there's no need for explanation beyond random chance.

Assuming, again, that genius is randomly bestowed on every millionth player or whatever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lazerbullet View Post
Well... keep waiting. In those days musically talented people did only one thing... play and write music which is now known as classical music. Now, musically talented people write and perform jazz, blues, rock and a lot of other very interesting and good music. It's most likely that Jimmy Page and John Lennon are so to speak Mozart and Beethoven of our time.
So... the Mozart and Beethoven of our time were both active in the late 60s and early 70s, on the leading edge of rock music as an art form.

Think about what you just demonstrated.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 11-16-2012 at 07:47 AM.
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