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11-16-2012, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Genius requires cultivation, inspiration, focus, and most of all opportunity. Those factors are definitely not spread across space and time equally. When all of those factors align, genius-level talent emerges and multiplies at a pace that defies randomness.
Yes, I agree with this and most of your examples are correct.

Applying all of this to the discussion at hand -- consider the nature of hockey development at present in the various corners of the hockey world. Would you say that the sport presently nurtures raw talent the way it did 50 years ago?
Of course not.

Would you say that the same proportion of boys choose to pursue hockey, that those boys spend as much time cultivating their talent in open play, and that their coaches give them the same opportunity to apply that skill in game settings?
I'm not saying that the same proportion of boys choose hockey. I'm saying that more boys play hockey. In absolute terms.

That's where the population argument goes off the rails for me. Even given the increase in "number of potential Harveys",there is not a corresponding increase in the resources and opportunity directed to developing those players, nor a moment of forward progress in our understanding of the sport's potential, which is at least equally important.
Many "potential Harveys" are being left on the street so to speak? It doesn't make sense. If kids play hockey, then they are given a chance to succeed and develop. So more kids play hockey (bigger population; population = number of kids playing hockey), then odds to have more "Harveys" is bigger.

Again, during Harvey time pretty much only Canada played hockey. Since the 80s-90s Europe started constantly to produce elite talent. So population got bigger, because now it's Canada, US, Europe, Russia. Odds that you had more top talent increased. Look at all those Euros who came over. This is all your extra talent that was "missing" in the 50s.

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