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11-16-2012, 03:10 PM
  #817
Hockey Duckie
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I was watching ESPN's Mike & Mike in the Morning show and they both picked Cabrera. The main reason why they picked Cabrera was what he did in September; also stating the September wins matter more than earlier months. So winning the Triple Crown and going to the playoffs as a Divisional Title winner matter more over the context of the season. Mike, not Golic, stated that Cabrera put his team on his back for 161 games. He also stated that you have to watch the games, not just simply watch the stats.

Let's pick apart his argument and say he loses context as did most people who voted for Cabrera. (Now, I know it's over and I'm not talking to all the Cabrera people at all, but maybe it can give other baseball fans some more insight. Granted, I'm a lowly poster on a hockey forum when compared to Mike & Mike, but here's a couple more of my cents, though it may not be worth it day after day the way the economy is sliding.)

Overall Standings
teamwins losses Wining PCT
Angels
89
73
0.549
Tigers
88
74
0.543

Clearly, the Angels have a better record. Now, let's address the whole September-October games that have more meaning.
Sept-October Standings
teamwins losses Wining PCT
Angels
19
11
0.633
Tigers
18
13
0.581

Based upon the team September-October standings, we can see that the Angels had a much better winning percentage than the Tigers. Btw, the Angels swept the Tigers in September. Now, let's look at some stats that Mike and other pundits like to put out September: (HR-Home Runs, RBIs- Runs Batted In, BA - Batting Average)

September Performance
PlayerHRsRBIsBA
Cabrera
10
27
0.308
Trout
5
6
0.257
|
As you can see, based upon those September stats that Miguel looks great. Now, put into context that Miguel Cabrera is batting third with slugging Prince Fielder behind him whereas Trout is a leadoff hitter. Just from that stat alone you can see that Trout has 5 HRs with only 6 RBIs. The result is a +1 RBI outside his HR. That means players are not getting on base for Trout to knock in for RBI stats because the players before him are the #7,8, and 9 hitters, who are the worst hitters on the team. Compare that to Cabrera's 10 HRs with 27 RBIs. That's a + 17 RBI outside his HR. Again, Trout is penalized for being a lead off hitter.

But I want to look at a fuller context for September stats that focus on power hitting, which Trout is, but isn't his role for his team as Trout is the lead off hitter.
PlayerAt BatsHitsRunsWalksHits + BB
Cabrera
104
32
22
13
45
Trout
101
26
21
20
46

Even though Trout may have had a bad BA for September, his job is to get on base as a lead off hitter and you can tell he got on base a tick more than Cabrera. And that's with three less at bats because the Angels played one less game than the Tigers in September. Also missing from all these September stats are fielding stats where Trout does make a huge factor, but apparently lots of people think MVP only matters in RBIs and HRs coming from a LEADOFF hitter.

Anyhow, most stats compare Trout to a power hitter in his situation. Let's look at the converse of that and compare Cabrera to a leadoff hitter situation, Trout's position.
2012 Leadoff inning situation
PlayerAt Bats Hits Runs HRs RBIsWalksBAOBP
Cabrera
106
33
8
7
7
6
0.311
0.348
Trout
223
76
11
11
11
17
0.341
0.398

Now, if pundits can simply say that one month can swing their vote, then using this stat and comparing the big numbers that pundits love in HRs, RBIs, and BA, then we can see that Trout wins hands down. I know Cabrera has over 100 less ABs than Trout, but can Cabrera survive as a leadoff man? Look at this batting average (BA) and it is significantly less than Trout. Put Cabrera on Trout's level and Cabrera can't touch what Trout does for his team. OBP is on base percentage which is the rate a player gets on base. Trout, again, is there at a higher rate than Cabrera.

So any pundit that say, "it's not only about stats, but you have to watch the games." I don't comprehend them because during that September when Trout wasn't getting any hits for a few games, sometimes going 0 for 3, Trout will still end up with a steal or a run or two because of the walks and his speed. It is very foolish for pundits to place the MVP race due to September. If Trout was here all 162 games and used the rate that with Trout with the Angels, then Trout and the Angels may be a playoff team and possibly a Division winner. But that terrible beginning for the Angels, 6 - 14, really mattered down the stretch that Super Mike could not overcome. A guy name Nate Silver wrote a wonderful article that exposes Cabrera to be not so MVP to his team.

blahahahaldhflasjf al;sjf asl;kj fas Bring on the winter meetings already. I need hockey to start already so I don't overthink this baseball things.

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