Thread: Speculation: Winnipeg Jets 2013 Draft Talk
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11-16-2012, 06:08 PM
  #169
Holden Caulfield
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I have to agree, there's no such thing as "too many picks" unless you see them all to maturation. Good picks are a very tradeable asset.
Disagree. When you have too many players coming into the pro game at the same time, you have a logjam. You would then get talented players playing 3/4 line in AHL, or even sent to ECHL...which will completely kill any possible value they will have. This is even more prominent with a farm team like St. John's which wants to win games, therefore they WILL be using their veteran spots all up, thereby forcing players down even further. The guy might be talented, but will never have the chance to prove it. They would have no chance of advancement in the organization, no chance to increase their value, they end up having to move on to find a chance...and no team is going to pay you to give them that chance.

You never bank on them all becoming top end players, but fact is you only have so many developmental spots. And players that have proven nothing, are worth nothing.

People are talking about adding ANOTHER 2nd and 3rd pick to this draft. Let's think this through for one second. That would be 5 picks in the top 61, 8 in the top 91, and 12 in the draft. Based on current drafting treads from the team, you are looking at likely 9-10 picks out of the CHL. All needing to turn pro in 14-15/15-16 depending on age. Out of the 5 in the top 61, you expect all of those to be signed and playing AHL hockey. I'd say you'd expect 2 of the 3rd rounders to be signed, and 1-2 of the late rounders.

Let's look at 15-16, so all the 2013 picks are going junior (except 2 college players, but again if those college players are 1/2 round picks they will be in their as well, as most top round college players only play 1-2 years college). Let's say 6 players on the low side turning pro out of this draft in 15-16 (or are 1 year of AHL under them, still new pros). Now remember that there is an additional 1-2 coming from the 2014 draft (remember late birthdays only need one year junior before turning pro). So let's add just 1 there. Remember that we still have college aged Harstad, Stoykewych, Serville looking to turn pro that year. So be conservative, just 1 gets signed. From the 2012 draft, we have Sutter, Kosmachuk, Olsen who are only 1 year into AHL service, let's say Olsen is left unsigned.

That's an influx of 11 players onto the AHL roster RIGHT THERE, half the roster overturned in one year all with a year or less AHL experience, with another crop of 4-5 rookies coming in the next year. That's NOT including guys who still be 21-23 years old and therefore legitimate prospects in Lowry, Yuen, Melchiori, Klingberg, O'Dell, etc who'll have 2-4 years AHL experience or any college/CHL undrafted FA's, of which there are lots of good prospects. And that's the worst case scenario, that your drafting was terrible. You cannot possibly have enough icetime for these prospects to develop, therefore killing any possible value. You will have to give up on them and ship them out for nothing, or hold on to them while they ruin their development chances. Remember that St. John's will always have their 7 veterans gunning for a championship as well, that's how they are, this is not going to be an ideal development only squad like Grand Rapids or Manchester.

You need to space out your draft selections to ensure the best system which has a constant steady stream of prospects to develop and help move onto the team. It is not good to have 12-15 picks in one draft, it creates too many problems. If the Jets do end up acquiring more picks for this draft they should be shipping them out for later years or packaging them to acquire more quality than quantity, IMO, 10 picks is plenty in any one draft.

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