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11-16-2012, 08:15 PM
  #777
marty111
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[continued]

#3. New CBA, future cap ceiling, and the Canuck’s cap management going forward. Posted by a different user but looking at the math, especially if the cap drops in one year to 60M, Vancouver will need to move salary in order to fill out their roster to continue competing for the cup. Luongo is the only real asset that they could use to clear cap space AND still get value for. Other players will likely need to be a cap dump + some value going to another team to absorb that cap hit. The new CBA will determine a lot but there is a possibility that cap dumps in the minors will still count against the cap - still to be determined. Either way it’s a 5-6 million dollar mistake on management or assets out the door to retain the cap to keep Luongo, still keeping in mind point #1 and #2. - nonsensical. It seems the strongest path is to move Luongo with everything considered and take some sort of value rather than the other options.

sedin (6.1) sedin (6.1) burrows (4.5)
booth (4.25) kesler (5.4) xxxxxx
kassian (0.87) xxxxxxx hansen (1.35)
xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx

bieksa (4.6) hamhuis (4.6)
garrison (4.6) xxxxxxx
ballard (4.2) xxxxxxx

schneider (4)
luongo (5.3)

“with the above players signed it is a total of apx. $57.57M committed to the cap with gillis needing to sign 5 forwards and 2 defenseman. assuming that the cap hit is in fact $70 million it would give apx. $12.5 million to sign the remaining 7 players.” Even worse if within a season the cap is graded down to 60M and of course Edler is to be signed.

Common rebuttal:
Goaltending duo's:

Nashville 8.5 mil (Rinne/Mason)
Rangers 8.175 mil (Lundquist/Biron)
Boston 9.375 mil (Thomas/Rask/Khudobin)
New York Islanders 7.25 mil (Depietro/Nabokov)

However, Nashville’s tandem will be expired in one form or another within one season or if the lockout continues, the next regular season game. Ranger’s clock in at 8.175 in two years but appear to have cap room for future moves. Boston’s same as Nashville, and NYI within one year or not at all if Depietro is on the LTIR. Completely different situations, either via length of tandem or the movability of each player.

Again, the lockout and new CBA will determine a lot but it seems completely outside the realm of reason to think Gillis can keep both and he is most surely on a clock to make it happen, valuation aside. I don’t see any reason why anyone would think Gillis has the option to keep Lu around for as long as he wants if he doesn’t get what he wants OR that Gillis has complete control over his asset Luongo. The clock is ticking for Gillis. While there is the possibility that a team gets desperate, the odds are better that they won’t. The longer Gillis waits, the quicker Luongo’s value drops.

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