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11-17-2012, 05:03 PM
  #53
ponder
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I don't know that any will underachieve, I think they're all going to be very good players. I don't see any of them being a Daigle, Stefan, Philips, DiPietro, etc. type where you think "damn, THAT GUY is a former 1st overall pick?" It's pretty common for 1st overall picks to NOT end up the best player in their draft, there are tonnes of 1st overall picks who panned out well despite later picks playing better than they did. For example, here are the top 20 NHLers in terms of career points among guys who were still in the NHL last season, and the position in which they were drafted:

1. Jaromir Jagr - 5th overall
2. Teemu Selanne - 10th overall
3. Nicklas Lidstrom - 53rd overall
4. Daniel Alfredsson - 133rd overall
5. Joe Thornton - 1st overall
6. Jarome Iginla - 11th overall
7. Ray Whitney - 23rd overall
8. Jason Arnott - 7th overall
9. Marian Hossa - 12th overall
10. Patrik Elias - 51st overall
11. Martin St. Louis - undrafted
12. Vincent Lecavalier - 1st overall
13. Patrick Marleau - 2nd overall
14. Ryan Smyth - 6th overall
15. Milan Hejduk - 87th overall
16. Shane Doan - 7th overall
17. Ilya Kovalchuk - 1st overall
18. Brad Richards - 64th overall
19. Saku Koivu - 21st overall
20. Brian Rolston - 11th overall

Only 3 of those 20 were 1st overall picks, and only 5 of those 20 were top 5 picks. The majority of the time a 1st overall pick turns out to be quite a good player, but at the same time most of them do not end up as the top player from their draft class when it's all said and done.

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