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11-19-2012, 01:14 AM
  #108
ContrarianGoaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I thought it might be that and I don't like it. For most of history, GVT is based primarily off of save percentage, but from 1943-44 to 1951-52, it's based off GAA. I realize the desire to bring GVT farther back into history, but I really don't like the mashing together of different stats at different times and calling it the same thing.
I don't really like it either, which is why it was the secondary part of my argument, after the part about comparing GAAs to league average. The reason I posted the numbers in this case is that I didn't think they were particularly unfair to Bill Durnan. If anything they probably inflated his true performance, because using GAA instead of save percentage is essentially assuming that all goalies faced the same number of shots against. If Durnan faced a below-average number of shots against (which seems likely, given what we know about the Montreal teams of that period) then he would be getting partial credit for the work of the team in front of him. Despite that, he still doesn't stand out relative to the rest of the group.

But you're right that it's best to not mix different methods, so let's go with this table instead, which gives GAAs compared to league average for the same six goalies, plus Thompson, Broda and Worters. I think it makes the same overall point as the GVT numbers did, that Durnan's GAA numbers relative to league average do not stand out from this tier of goalies unless you add in the war years of '43-44 and '44-45, as several of the other goalies had a similar level of GAA outperformance relative to average over a much higher number of games:

GoalieStartEndGPGAALgAvgDiff%
Bernie Parent67-6878-795512.443.130.6922%
Tony Esposito68-6977-785792.553.180.6320%
Ed Belfour90-9100-016522.412.960.5519%
Bill Durnan45-4649-502832.382.950.5719%
Billy Smith73-7483-844652.913.520.6117%
Johnny Bower58-5967-684542.482.930.4515%
Tiny Thompson28-2938-395072.032.290.2611%
Turk Broda38-3950-515352.542.850.3111%
Roy Worters27-2833-342862.132.170.042%

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