What Variables Predict Playoff Success?
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11-19-2012, 01:12 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Originally Posted by
Burke the Legend
Dismal underperforming first half offence was reformed with player acquisitions and style changes.
That said I believe it's almost impossible to consistently predict playoff performance based on regular season stats because the two biggest playoff variables IMO are 1) goaltending and 2) health.
Did any kind of statistical model predict J. Quick would deliver a .946 save % in the 2012 playoffs?
Health is fairly self exaplanatory. When key regulars start dropping like flies down the stretch and in the playoffs, any team stats acquired during the regular season become fuzzier and fuzzier as the team that actually created them begins to decompile.
No, but any reasonable statistical model would have told you that if anyone were to go on such an amazing run, it would most likely be Quick, Smith, or Lundqvist (top 3 regular season sv%s).
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