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11-20-2012, 05:23 AM
  #26
Czech Your Math
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I added a variable (Xc), along the lines of what barney suggested, to capture the "concentration effect" of the top ~1-3 teams in GF. Xc is defined as the % of players in the top 1N who were on the top 0.1N teams in GF.

More recently, variables which measure expansion (% of new teams in past 1 or 2 seasons) and the effect of non-Canadians on the top 1N scoring average.

1968-2012
=========
R^2 = .691
SEy = 2.48 (avg. Y = 89.9)


Coeff: value, t-score
B0 = 81.4, 65
Bn = (0.39), 17
Bh= (6.45), 7
Bi= 7.56, 9
Bg = (0.15), 1.4
Bp =2.47, 20
Bf = 420, 24
Ba = (118), 10
Bt = 1.93, 4
Bc = (9.66), 8
Be = 40.3, 19

Y: avg. simple adjusted points (gms, GPG, A/G) of top 1N players (N=number of teams)
B0: Y-intercept (constant)
Xn: Number of teams
Xh: Fraction of new teams vs. previous season
Xi: Fraction of new teams vs. two seasons previous
Xg: League GPG
Xp: PP opportunities/game
Xf: Standard deviation of teams' GF, divided by avg. team GF
Xa: Standard deviation of teams' GA, divided by avg. team GA
Xt: Excess above avg. GF of top 0.2N teams in GF, divided by std dev of team GF
Xc: Ratio of players in top 1N which were on teams in the top 0.1N in GF
Xe: Fractional increase in avg. of top 1N due to non-Canadian players

One important factor that may still be missing is the presence/absence of some of the very top Canadian players (i.e., Gretzky and/or Lemieux). It will probably take a lot of trial and error to determine how to best define the proper variable to capture this causality.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 02-24-2013 at 12:10 PM.
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