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11-20-2012, 05:14 PM
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garret9
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Garret: Evaluating 2way players... Please judge me

Oh great... Garret is doing his stupid stats work again...

So out of boredom (or just procrastinating on lab work) I decided to try and take some peeks at who were the most effective two-way players in the game last year. The key word is effective, in that they were getting results. I was wondering if I could get some of your guys’ comments on my method and my results.

The way I evaluated these players was:
*they had to have played at least 30 games
*they have been mostly lining up against tough opponents/competition
*they had to score at a respectable rate for their team and position
*they had to been beating their competition and by a reasonable amount
*they couldn’t have their numbers being inflated by ridiculous offensive zone usage


Forwards:
*only players with 30+ games played
*>0.00 RelQoC (they aren't being lined up against 3rd/4th lines)
*<60 OZS% (no offensively inflated Sedins)
*>1.00 pts/60 (scoring at a respectable rate)
*>10 RelCorsi (they are solidly beating their competition)
ANA: Getzlaf, Perry
BOS: Seguin, Horton, Bergeron, Marchand
CBJ: Prospal
CGY: Moss, Stempniak
COL: Landeskog, O`Reilly, Downie
DAL: Benn
DET: Datsyuk
EDM: Hall
LAK: Williams, Kopitar
MIN: Setoguchi, Cullen
MTL: Cole, Pacioretty
NJD: Ponikarovsky
NSH: Legwand, Hornqvist
NYI: Tavares
NYR: Hagelin
OTT: Alfredsson
PHI: Jagr
PHX: Whitney, Hanzal, Vrbata
SJS: Thornton, Pavelski, Couture
STL: Steen
TOR: Grabovski
VAN: Kesler, Booth
WPG: Ladd, Little, Wheeler


I then tried the same parameters for D and only got three (Karlsson, Chara and Byfuglien). So, I then lightened the load to >0.80 pts/60 and >0 RelCorsi. Here were my results.
Defense:
*only players with 30+ games played
*>0.00 RelQoC
*<60 OZS%
*>0.80 pts/60
*>0 RelCorsi
ANA: Visnovsky
BOS: Chara
BUF: Ehroff
CBJ: Nikitin
CGY Giordano
CHI: Leddy, Seabrook
DAL: Goligoski
DET: White
EDM: Petry
FLA: Garrison
LAK: Doughty
MTL: Subban
NSH: Weber
NYI: Streit
NYR: McDonagh
OTT: Karlsson
PHI: Carle, Timonen
PHX: Rozsival, Ekman-Larsson
PIT: Martin, Letang
SJS: Boyle, Burns
STL: Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo
TBL: Hedman
VAN: Edler, Bieksa, Hamhuis
WPG: Enstrom, Byfuglien
WSH: Wideman

If you are wondering why Bogosian missed this list, he would have made it if he had been paired with Hainsey the full year instead of Stuart, who pulled him down hard.


I found that list to have too many offensive only defensemen. Now TBH, I rate offense as more important skill than defense, as a guy who can push the puck out of the zone reduces more scoring chances against than a guy who blocks lots of shots but keeps giving the other team the puck back. So I experimented with zone starts and finishes, and I’m curious to what you guys think of the change. What I did is I took any guy off the list if they ended their shift in the offensive zone less than they started. In other words, I got rid of the guys who couldn’t keep the puck in the other team’s zone when they didn’t score or couldn’t get the puck out of their own zone. So I kept anyone who’s OZF>OZS. Due to neutral zone information missing, I gave a leeway of 0.5% OZF-OZS. All other parameters were the same as last time.
BOS: Chara
CBJ: Nikitin
CHI: Seabrook
DAL: Goligoski
EDM: Petry
LAK: Doughty
MTL: Subban
NSH: Weber
NYI: Streit
NYR: McDonagh
PHX: Rozsival, Ekman-Larsson
STL: Pietrangelo
TBL: Hedman
VAN: Bieksa, Hamhuis
WPG: Enstrom, Byfuglien


So I thought, what would happen if I did the same to my original Forwards list.
ANA: Getzlaf, Perry
BOS: Bergeron
CBJ: Prospal
CGY: Moss, Stempniak
COL: O`Reilly
DAL: Benn
LAK: Williams, Kopitar
MIN: Cullen
MTL: Cole, Pacioretty
NJD: Ponikarovsky
NSH: Legwand
SJS: Thornton, Pavelski
STL: Steen
VAN: Kesler
WPG: Ladd, Little

It's really interesting who get's booted off the original list when you do that.

Thoughts? Comments? Feel free to provide

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