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11-21-2012, 06:34 PM
  #167
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
This is why we don't make up stories or narratives to fit the data - they're usually wrong.

Kuba in '10-'11 (even strength)
Time periodKuba's on-ice sv%Elliott EVSV%Leclaire EVSV%Anderson EVSV%Lehner EVSV%Brodeur EVSV%
First quarter of season0.8840.9140.859   
Second quarter of season0.8770.8920.957  0.778
Third quarter of season0.8730.856 0.9520.8800.818
Fourth quarter of season0.911  0.928  
(McElhinney not included)
Let's go back to our earlier exchange about goalie vs skaters responsibility for SV%. Doesn't Brian Elliott's complete turnaround in going from Ottawa to St Louis make a pretty strong case that the team in front of the goaltender matters for SV%? It was a statistical impossibility otherwise. And we know that Kuba was part of that team in Ottawa. We also know that he broke his leg early in the season, and appeared to struggle upon his return. Maybe the statistical tools you are using aren't powerful enough to spot an in-season decline in a player's performance. Doesn't mean that such things don't exist.

And I'm not fabricating a narrative to fit the data here. I'm an Ottawa fan who watched Kuba play as the events that make up the data took place, giving my subjective observations of those events.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Top 5 defense partners in '09-'10:
1) Karlsson (327min)
2) Phillips (207min)
3) Campoli (139min)
4) Lee (33min)
5) Volchenkov (17min)

Top 5 defense partners in '10-'11:
1) Karlsson (428min) +101min
2) Butler (147min) +147min
3) Lee (131min) +98min
4) Gonchar (127min) +127min
5) Campoli (66min) -73min

He played less than half as much with Campoli, had never before played with Gonchar or Butler, quadrupled the time he spent with Lee, added over a hundred minutes with Karlsson, and played 160 minutes less with Phillips.
FYI Butler is a winger.

I was actually thinking of 11-12 when I was talking about his role, but I guess you were comparing to 09-10. In any case Karlsson was his primary partner in all 3 seasons, so there is some similarity, but 09-10 Karlsson is not the same as 11-12 Karlsson.

I believe Kuba played top pairing minutes and QoC in both seasons too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
I'm not saying his shot +/- is 100% driven by Kuba. I'm saying that his performance from year to year was very similar, and the %s that are out of his control (how well the opposing goalie and his own goalie played when he was on the ice, versus how well they played when he was on the bench) were wild. I picked Kuba as an example because they're pretty radical differences.

Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "supporting minutes eater"... He played 16:06 per game at even strength, plus 2:29/game shorthanded and 2:07/game on the powerplay. "Supporting minutes" players don't typically average almost 21 minutes per game.
I think your statements are ahead of the evidence again. You're basically defining performance as on-ice shot metrics and dismissing everything else as out of his control or irrelevant. Shot metrics are crude, team-based stats that include the performance of many other players and fail to capture some aspects of performance. Just because they can't see a difference doesn't mean none exists.

Kuba is a quality player who can play in all situations - but he plays basically a supporting role in all situations. He's a big, non-physical d-man who has good skills but isn't an offensive creator. In any given situation he can contribute but isn't a difference maker.That's what I mean by a supporting player.

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