Thread: Proposal: Oilers Caps /Oilers Blues
View Single Post
Old
11-22-2012, 10:49 PM
  #39
eklunds source
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Ed Snider's basement
Posts: 7,632
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kreator View Post
Then he will start taking more shots... Why is that so hard for people to believe?
It's not like he took 600 shots last year.
He can still maintain a 30+ goal season.
Eberle took 2.30 shots per game in his rookie season. He took 2.31 shots per game last year. Why are we hypothesizing that he will start taking more shots?

Jonathan Willis does a lot better analysis than anyone on HFBoards will ever do; both his articles on the subject are worth a read:
How many goals will Jordan Eberle score next season?
Jordan Eberle Comparables, Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
People love to focus on the negative.

Eberle was 15th in league scoring and had the 11th best ppg average of all players that played 50+ games last season while only averaging 17:35 a game. There were only two players that averaged less ice time in the top 50. Seguin had 67 points(29th in the league) in 81 games while averaging 16:56 and Purcell had 65 points(40th in the league) while averaging 16:07.

Most of the players ahead of Eberle in points were averaging 2-4 minutes a night more than him. Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season. Eberle has a deadly shot and with more ice time, I'm sure he'll continue to be a 30+ goal scorer in the league.
I don't mean to be rude, but this is pretty much a load of bunk. We're not focusing on the negative, we're focusing on what is actually sustainable talent, and what is luck. This isn't an abstract concept - the entire thing is based off of years of evidence.

"15th in league scoring, 11th best ppg average"
-- This happened because of his shooting percentage. He produced a lot of goals and a lot of points because the puck went in the net a lot - an unsustainable amount of the time. When Eberle was on the ice at 5v5, the Oilers scored on 12.84% of their shots. Here's some recent history of players who have posted on-ice shooting percentages in that ballpark:

2010-2011:
Ryan Getzlaf - 11.97%. The next season it dropped to 7.42%.

2009-2010:
Daniel / Henrik Sedin - 14.39 and 13.62%. The next season it dropped to 10.96 and 10.59%.
Alex Ovechkin - 12.52%. Next season, 9.09%.

2008-2009:
Evgeni Malkin - 13.23%. Next season it dropped to 9.68%.

These are the best players in the world, and their on-ice shooting percentages are just as volatile, unpredictable, and random as anyone else's in the league. These numbers regress hard, for every player. I'm not saying they'll regress to the same number for everyone - talented offensive players will consistently have higher on-ice shooting percentages than 3rd/4th line plugs - but what goes up must come down.

Remember the year Horcoff had 50 points in 53 games and got a huge contract extension? His on-ice shooting percentage that year was 11.36%. It hasn't been over 9.4% since, and it's been under 7% twice. How is that contract extension working out? A perfect example of why basing decisions on point totals - which are heavily influenced by shooting percentages - is an awful idea.

"Was his shooting% high? Yes, but you have got to have something going for you if you can sustain that for an entire season."

One season is not enough to say what is sustainable. It just isn't. Look at Curtis Glencross:

2006 to 2011 (his entire career before last season): 68 goals on 530 shots, 12.8%
2011 to 2012 (just last season, 67 games): 26 goals on 110 shots, 23.6%

Eberle shot 18.9% last year. Here are shooters from 2008 to 2010 who managed to hit 18%, and what they did the season after:

Sergei Kostitsyn: 24.7%. Dropped to 17.5% (-7.2%)
Sidney Crosby: 19.9%. Dropped to 10.7% (-9.2%)
Lauri Korpikoski: 18.4%. Dropped to 11.6% (-6.8%)
Alex Tanguay*: 18.3%. Dropped to 15.5% (-2.8%)
Andrew Brunette: 19.4%. Dropped to 15.4% (-4.0%)
Mike Knuble: 19.2%. Dropped to 11.8% (-7.4%)
Tomas Holmstrom: 19.1%. Dropped to 14.4% (-4.7%)
Tomas Fleischmann: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.2% (-6.8%)
Nik Antropov: 19.0%. Dropped to 15.2% (-3.8%)
Steve Downie: 19.0%. Dropped to 12.0% (-7.0%)
Troy Brouwer: 19.0%. Dropped to 13.9% (-5.1%)
Jussi Jokinen: 18.8%. Dropped to 14.0% (-4.8%)

Every single player had a significant drop. That's what people mean when they say "it's not sustainable" - Eberle isn't some magical wizard who can cause goaltenders to blink at the wrong moment. He's a hockey player who had a high shooting percentage in his 2nd year. Sometimes players have a crazy shooting percentage in their first year, and they get labelled as a super rookie and the next star (see Petr Prucha: shot 23.1% in his first 68 games, over his next 278 games he shot 11.1%).

Sometimes it happens in their 2nd or 3rd year, and people think "oh, he's really broken out, he understands the game now, he's going to be elite forever".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I don't know if it will stay quite as high as it was last season since it was very high but his shot accuracy and shot choice is so good that I wouldn't be surprised if he always has one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Even in the AHL so far this season he's at 16.67%. He's always had a high shooting%.

2012-13(AHL): 16.67%
2011-12(NHL): 18.9%
2010-11(NHL): 11.4%
2009-10(AHL): 25%
2008-09(AHL): 30%

I don't know what his percentage was in the WHL but he had 50 goals in 57 games in 2009-10, so I think it's safe to assume it was very high.
Eberle could very possibly have a well above average shooting percentage. I say possibly, because we don't know, but I'd go so far as to say there's a very good chance that he's an excellent shooter. However, he would have to be the best shooter the NHL has seen in 30 years to continue to score goals at the same pace..

Is it possible? Sure. I'm not going to bet on it. In fact, I'll bet heavily against it..

eklunds source is offline   Reply With Quote