Thread: Prospect Info: 2013 NHL Draft Thread
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11-23-2012, 12:19 PM
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Has anyone on the Columbus board figured out the statistical probability that Columbus gets the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Overall picks in the NHL's 2013 Entry Draft?

Assuming there is no season and the league adopts a draft lottery (with the same rules as the 2005 draft).

They have three 1sts, afterall.

Originally Posted by My Sweet Shadow
Even that description's a little misleading. You don't lose a ball "for every" playoff appearance or first overall. Essentially there's two criteria:

1) Missed the playoffs in each of the previous 3 seasons.
2) Didn't have the 1st overall selection over the last 4 drafts.

If you met both criteria, you got 3 balls.
If you made the playoffs only once OR had the 1st overall only once, you got 2 balls.
If you had two or more of any combination of those two (playoff appearances or 1st overalls), then you only got 1 ball.

Thanks for starting the thread though; it'll definitely be useful with all this lock-out talk flying around.
So teams with a 3/50 chance would be:
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto and Winnipeg/Atlanta (3/50 = 6%, 7*6% = 42%)
Teams with a 2/50 chance would be:
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York Islanders, St Louis and Tampa Bay (2/50 = 4%, 6*4% = 24%)
Teams with a 1/50 chance would be:
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver and Washington (1/50 = 2%, 18*2% = 36%)

So Columbus has a 10% chance of getting the 1st overall. Assuming best possible odds (where LA is selected 1st, NYR selected 2nd and CLB selected 3rd):
0.1 * 0.08 * 0.06 = 0.00048, or 0.048% chance, or 3/6,250 for those preferring fractions.

Last edited by indigobuffalo: 11-23-2012 at 01:25 PM.
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