: Prospect Info:
2013 NHL Draft Thread
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11-23-2012, 07:43 PM
Join Date: Feb 2012
Originally Posted by
Not a stat whiz,but I don't think your probabilities are right. In your scenario either the Kings or Rangers have a 2% chance of winning #1; the loser then has a slightly better than 2% chance of 2nd leaving the Jackets with a 3/48 or 6.25% chance of picking third. Multiply them together and the probability that this scenario happens is .0051 per cent.
The highest chance of the Jackets getting all three is .051%. 10% (5/50) x 8% (4/49) x 6% (3/48) (rounding ignored here). That is assuming the Rangers and Kings happen to win the first two. If you say for sure that is going to happen then I think its the scenario above that dictates the probability of that happening.
More worried about getting picks 28, 29 and 30 which would be the luck of Columbus
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