Adjusted Even Strength Production Leaders
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11-25-2012, 07:28 PM
Join Date: Feb 2010
Originally Posted by
Czech Your Math
Basically, players who played into the 90s have data on ESPN's site, and those that didn't don't. On that site, it's all or nothing: either there's full data for the player's career or none at all. I estimated data for Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, etc. based on their ESG/total goal ratios (assuming same ratio held for assists). I thought those estimates would be more accurate over multiple seaons (although calculated separately for each season) than for single seasons, so I included them with asterisks.
Yzerman was much stronger at ES in '89 than in '88 (101/155 points at ES in '89 vs. 61/102 in '88).
In terms of percentage of points, that 101/155 would be about 66 of 102. That's not a huge difference as a ratio.
Seeing the numbers on ESPN's page, it's more surprising; in 77GP, Lemieux only had 74 ESP to 80 PPP+14 SHP. Yzerman had 61 ESP in 64 GP. So Yzerman is just shy of Lemieux's ESPPG number, but comes out ahead if he plays the full 80.
Also notable is Yzerman's 1993-94 season. His actual total PPG, projected to a full 80, works out to 119 points (third behind Gretzky's 130 and Fedorov's 120). His 84-game adjusted ES number, based on your adjustment calculation, would put him at ~101 (I reached this number by comparing with Fedorov's numbers; there is a slight margin for error).
I think this data solidly supports my longstanding argument that Peak Yzerman was the best player in the league in at least 1989; and a top-three forward for the stretch from 88-94. He was scoring on par with Gretzky and Lemieux in ES situations (he didn't have the significant support cast on the PP that they had) and was easily the best defensive player of the three.
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