HeroStats - Grabovski, #1 or #2 C.
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11-25-2012, 10:02 PM
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: St. John's, NL
Originally Posted by
I do spend some time data mining, but to go through players' icetimes game by game, and accumulate the points scored with each linemate would be a ridiculous amount of work to prove something that should be pretty obvious.
Then don't phrase what you're saying as if it's fact, if you're not going to prove it.
So you believe that puck possession is proportional to shots on net, and so is scoring chances generated? Interesting. You must have loved all the "scoring chances" the likes of Jason Blake generated, not to mention his ridiculous puck possession skills.
Totally missed the point. Surprising.
Despite playing against very tough competition, Grabovski's line dominated in terms of puck possession, which obviously translates into shots.
As for the Blake statement, hyperbole from you once again. This all feels so desperate.
Combination of many factors, including:
[*]Having to cover more and more for Grabo defensively, as Grabo started taking more chances offensively in an attempt to revive his flat-lined offense.
Very few players go from zeroes to heroes back to zeroes in a stretch of a season. Players go through slumps all the time, but if we start classifying 2-3 month stretches as slumps, we could make a lot of the players in the league look better than they are.
I've stated why I think Bozak is a better choice to center the Kessel line, let's hear why you think Grabo would be the better choice. What could he bring to the line that Bozak doesn't? Do you think what he could potentially bring to the line is what the line actually needs? Can you see Grabo being the first man back defensively on a regular basis to cover for Lupul/Kessel?
This entire thread is about evaluating Grabovski as a #1C/#2C compared to his peers, not determining a fit with Kessel and Lupul.
However, to address your questions, you firstly severely underrate Grabovski's defensive abilities. He was routinely a hard back-checker last season and I don't think he'd have any issue filling Bozak's role defensively. Additionally, if Grabo's on the top line their puck possession time likely goes even higher which means the puck will be in the offensive zone longer. I do not need to explain the defensive component of keeping the puck in the offensive zone, do I? (And no, before you go off on another overexaggerative tangent, I'm not saying "the puck will be in the other zone 100% of the time that line is on the ice). As said by others, Grabovski's speed backs off defenders and opens up time for his linemates. For example, imagine Grabovski coming in hot over the line, backing off the defenders, and making a drop-pass to Kessel as he follows Grabo into the zone. Kessel has all the time in the world to step in over the line and make a play.
I've seen people say "we don't have enough sample size to say it would work". Well, I counter with "we don't have enough sample size to say it
I feel Bozak is best suited for a third-line center role where he can focus on shutting down scoring lines instead of being relied upon as an offensive catalyst.
Originally Posted by
Take out his only hot stretch of the season, and you'll see. Not sure what's so rational about looking at arbitrary 20-21 game splits that cut his hot and cold streaks smooth out the differences, vs following the 2-3 month long peaks and valleys.
P.S: Your sample size is smaller btw
"Take out his best stretch of play from the season and you'll see how bad he was."
By standardizing the sample sizes to smooth out the differences, you're avoiding biased judgments, which you are patently guilty of doing.
Exactly what portion of time were you referring to with your 0.4ppg statement? Find me one section of 20+ games from last season where Grabovski performed at 0.4ppg or less. You won't find one.
I went through this song and dance with you last season when you couldn't grasp the concept of accounting for statistical outliers when showing you that Reimer was a better goaltender than your best friend forever Gustavsson, so I don't have much hope in this going anywhere. Best I not waste any more time on it.
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