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11-25-2012, 11:46 PM
  #98
4evaBlue
Corsi != Possession
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Then don't phrase what you're saying as if it's fact, if you're not going to prove it.
I'll tell you what. I'll take the time to do the data gathering to prove or disprove it if you back up all your claims with facts (all the glorious chances Kulemin's missed, Grabo's super tough matchups, examples of Grabo's "routine hard back-checks").

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Totally missed the point. Surprising.

Despite playing against very tough competition, Grabovski's line dominated in terms of puck possession, which obviously translates into shots.

As for the Blake statement, hyperbole from you once again. This all feels so desperate.
It's merely an illustration of how folly using shots on net as an indication of puck possession and scoring chances is. The competition Grabo faced wasn't all that great, either. Feel free to prove your claim with icetimes against those supposed tough matchups Grabo's faced, and not by using some flawed statistics you managed to Google.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Absolute fabrication.
Of course you'd say that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
This entire thread is about evaluating Grabovski as a #1C/#2C compared to his peers, not determining a fit with Kessel and Lupul.
Yes, and those opinions are based on looking at their offensive production in vacuum, completely ignoring the roles players play, and defensive matchups they face while achieving their point totals. If a center is unable to play effectively between a PFW and a sniper winger, they'll have a tough time replacing most centers around the league.

Yes, if Grabo could reprorduce his 59 point career year, while facing tougher defensive matchups, he could potentially quality as a welfare #1C.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
However, to address your questions, you firstly severely underrate Grabovski's defensive abilities. He was routinely a hard back-checker last season and I don't think he'd have any issue filling Bozak's role defensively.
I think you overrate Grabo's defensive abilties. Agree to disagree. Do you remember how the Grabo line did defensively after Kulemin was replaced by Frattin?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Additionally, if Grabo's on the top line their puck possession time likely goes even higher which means the puck will be in the offensive zone longer. I do not need to explain the defensive component of keeping the puck in the offensive zone, do I? (And no, before you go off on another overexaggerative tangent, I'm not saying "the puck will be in the other zone 100% of the time that line is on the ice).
Here we go with the corsi crap again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
As said by others, Grabovski's speed backs off defenders and opens up time for his linemates. For example, imagine Grabovski coming in hot over the line, backing off the defenders, and making a drop-pass to Kessel as he follows Grabo into the zone. Kessel has all the time in the world to step in over the line and make a play.
Let's say the puck is turned over while Grabo crosses the blue line, who's preventing the odd man rush the other way? Lupul? Kessel is more than capable of carrying the puck in over the blue line with speed and backing up the defenders. Why do we need a lite version of him on the line to do that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
I've seen people say "we don't have enough sample size to say it would work". Well, I counter with "we don't have enough sample size to say it wouldn't.
And I counter with "Don't try to fix what isn't broken".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
I feel Bozak is best suited for a third-line center role where he can focus on shutting down scoring lines instead of being relied upon as an offensive catalyst.
That's the thing. The first line isn't relying on him to be an offensive catalyst. I agree that Bozak should ideally be used on the 3rd line, where he could use his offensive skills a lot more effectively. Putting Grabo between Kessel and Lupul to be an offensive catalyst would, IMO, open up huge defensive lapses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
"Take out his best stretch of play from the season and you'll see how bad he was."

By standardizing the sample sizes to smooth out the differences, you're avoiding biased judgments, which you are patently guilty of doing.
It's not so much take out, but examine the streaks separately. I gave him props for his awesome hot streak. If he could play half as well for the rest of the season, he'd actually earn his paycheck.

So observing trends is now considered biased? You don't believe Grabo's a notoriously slow starter? You should notify the broadcasters that all this hot and cold streaks nonsense is meaningless, and they should just use Q1, and Q2 averages. Even better, use the before and after ASG splits, since that removes even more variance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Exactly what portion of time were you referring to with your 0.4ppg statement? Find me one section of 20+ games from last season where Grabovski performed at 0.4ppg or less. You won't find one.
I was going off memory from months old thread where I said that outside of Grabo's hot January, and first couple of weeks of February, Colborne could have duplicated what Grabo brought to the table. It was supposed to say 40 point pace, or 0.5 PPG (ie: Colborne's NHL production from few games he played on the 3rd line). That'll teach me to not double check my figures.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
I went through this song and dance with you last season when you couldn't grasp the concept of accounting for statistical outliers when showing you that Reimer was a better goaltender than your best friend forever Gustavsson, so I don't have much hope in this going anywhere. Best I not waste any more time on it.
And look how wrong you've proven me. Reimer looked so great in net all season long. For the record, I believe both goalies will have better seasons next go around, Reimer with a better coach/defensive system, and Gus with a better coach/system/team.

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