The All-Encompassing Minnesota Pro Sports Thread VI
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11-26-2012, 01:44 PM
dun worry he's cool
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Originally Posted by
Dr Jan Itor
At the risk of being accused of setting an "arbitrary cutoff date", I would like to point out that no 1st round receiver has really "busted" since 2007. Not all of them have played to their draft positions (DHB or Crabtree or even Blackmon so far this year), but I feel that the 40% success rate is a bit misleading. Even the 3 that I listed above could be more a product of their environment, rather than their abilities.
It's not so much an "arbitrary cutoff date" as it is "really really tiny sample size."
2008 didn't have any WR selected in the first round, so you're really talking about 2009-2012.
In 2009 you had Crabtree and Heyward-Bey as top 10 picks who have been pretty good. Maclin and Harvin came out of the late middle and have been good (now that Harvin's migraine issue seems to be resolved). Nicks has outperformed his draft position, but Britt is borderline for being successful right now. All in all, 2009 was an unusually good year for WR.
The 2010 draft only had 2 WR selected, both late in the round. Thomas was very gradually let into the lineup, starting just 7 games in his first two seasons, but has had a breakout year this year. A team like the Vikings would force him into a bigger role sooner, and that could really make or break a player like that for his success or failure. Dez Bryant has worked out, but he's the kind of player you really don't want in your locker room.
The 2011 draft is getting into the "too recent to call" type territory. Green and Jones were top 6 picks, which aren't comparable to the rest of the round. The only other WR picked is Baldwin who has been unimpressive at best for a terrible KC team.
The 2012 draft is way too recent to call, but Michael Floyd could easily end up a bust, and A.J. Jenkins has yet to play an NFL game.
If you ignore 2009 for a moment, there's 9 WR who were selected, and we're potentially looking at 6 of them being successful picks. That's still only a 67% success rate, and two of the successful players are ones I wouldn't want anywhere near my team's locker room.
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