The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXX - Naughty Edition
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11-26-2012, 03:03 PM
Join Date: Aug 2006
Originally Posted by
That still does not discredit the fact Gomez was a better player at the time. Had he not sunk into oblivion and McDonagh not exploded, the trade would not be anywhere near as horrendous as the perception is now, albatross is not. In actuality, your comparison is a tad unfair. We already know Komisarek is horrible right now, whereas Gomez, while never worth his contract, had respectable numbers.
The premise of auto-losing a trade by dealing the best player still holds true. Prospects muddy the waters because they can't be properly evaluated against the field. It's because they haven't played yet. For example, before Seguin stepped onto NHL ice, would you say that Chris Kelly was clearly the better player? No, you can't, because you can't project Seguin's upside objectively. However, a straight NHL player to NHL player comparison _should_ have people aware of who is better.
Gomez's contract was already unjustified, thereby affecting his value, even before he took his precipitous drop. So we have the contract and the fact that McDonough was an unknown quantity working against your evaluation.
And the win hinged on a gamble Toronto freefall to the basement. No one predicted either first would be as considerably high when that trade was made. Boston traded Kessel knowing in all likelihood they would end up with a 10-15 pick, perhaps slightly below. Not the second overall.
What off Heatley for Michalek? That worked out pretty well for Ottawa.
This isn't to say these were necessarily good trades, or other circumstances surrounded their reason. But instead to say the best player being traded does not guarantee a loss for the team moving him.
Yes, I'm afraid it does. Even if you could cite 5% of the cases to support your point, the general rule still stands. The exceptions do not overrule it. In fact, I am _expecting_ to lose the Luongo deal. That's my realization.
Oh, and I'm still taking Heatley (still lead his team in scoring).
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