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11-26-2012, 11:08 PM
garret9's Avatar
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C/RW Burmistrov; 1st Round, 2010 (I promise this is the last thread)

First: I know, I know... I said I wouldn't be doing this for a while and that I wouldn't be around much... But this felt like this is one last thing I have to finish (even if there are a bunch of more work/school related projects that are needing to be finished).

Second: mods, I thought it be best to make a Burmistrov centred thread since he seems to be popping up the Prospects, IceCaps, and Locked-Out Jets threads. Consolidation ... if you disagree, I won't be hurt if one of you send it away.

Third: little off topic, but I want to say first and up front a huge thank you to Gump Hasek, Sipowicz, and others. Even when we don't agree, I completely respect and appreciate your opinions. I hope you do reply to this thread and give yours even if it is different. I would never visit here if we were all clones that thought the same. Could you imagine a forum of all Garrets and Grinds (and a Sully running around saying we're all the same person)? I'd want to stab my eyes out from reading all the garbage (sorry Grind).

Buuuuut, now to the bulk. Honestly, I'm a little biased; I like Burmistrov. I'll try to keep it objective and even plae other opinions but true objectivity won't happen sorry. (I will add links to my facts later)

First, let's take a look at Burmistrov's progress in both boxcar stats and advance stats. We all know he was rushed as Thrashers were hoping to sell tickets with their draft picks and young stars.
Boxcar Stats
2010 Thrashers 74 6 14 20 0.081 0.189 0.270
2011 Jets 76 13 15 28 0.171 0.197 0.368
Delta 2.7% 116.7% 7.1% 40.0% 111.0% 4.3% 36.3%
Advance Stats
2010 Thrashers 74 11.51 -0.339 49.9 -2.8 0.42 0.35
2011 Jets 76 13.20 -0.097 52.4 7.24 0.6 0.42
Delta 2.7% 14.7% 71.4% 5.0% 358.6% 42.9% 20.0%
All Advanced Stats are for 5v5 only and from behindthenet. By every measurement Burmistrov improved, and impressively, while facing much tougher minutes, becoming a competent NHL player in his sophomore year while his fellow draft classmate Telegin was playing in Barrie.
Random fact: Kane's G/60 went down his sophomore year by 20.8%, showing how progression is never linear.

Now the happy stuff is over let's go to the not-so-happy stuff. First, I was the one that predicted Burmistrov's point total to be around 62, but that was without taking in account the added competition. I was able to track down an equivalency from nhlnumbers that is to take account the added QoC, but this is only from a one year sampling (last lockout) so take it in with a grain of salt.
NHL/AHL Equivalencies
oldEstimate IceCaps 76 29 33 62 0.380 0.439 0.819
newEstimate IceCaps 76 24 27 51 0.311 0.359 0.670
Well ok so 62 was a bit of an over-estimate... but still Burmistrov isn't doing even as well as on track for 51:
2012 IceCaps 19 2 7 9 0.105 0.368 0.474
2012proj IceCaps 76 8 28 36 0.105 0.368 0.474
Honestly, if this is sustained, I do understand being worried, albeit I still wouldn't think of it as the end of the world. Well how sustainable is it? Burmistrov has always been a set up man first, so we'll also look at Burmistrov's most common linemates. At first Burmi was playing with Maxwell and a rotating cast on LW of King, Tremblay, Whitmore and Gagnon. Lately Burmistrov has been playing with Jaffray and a mix of Maxwell and the same cast as before. All of these players are the guys who haven't been doing as well as they normally do. Let's see by how much:
Burmistrov19 2 7 9 46 0.043 0.088 4
Maxwell 19 1 6 7 48 0.021 0.093 4
Jaffray 13 2 6 8 22 0.091 0.139 3
Tremblay 13 1 5 6 16 0.063 0.140 2
King 9 1 3 4 12 0.083 0.161 2
Whitmore 7 1 2 3 21 0.048 0.132 3
Gagnon 11 0 0 0 17 0.000 0.135 2
That just shows you that it's not just Burmistrov's bad luck pulling him down, but his linemates too. Most likely, but not for sure, will equal out. Heck Burmistrov is tied for the most goals both with the true results and the normalized sh% results... and he's not supposed to be the goalscorer for that group... So, if you want to look at the glass half full, I guess you can say he is doing well relative to his peers and will likely do even better as the year goes on. If anyone cares, that normalized sh% still puts him 1 goal short of my equivalency hypothesized goals, but he's actually right on track for assists at his currently rate... so if he had 5g7a he'd be on track, but since he's 2g7a he's a worry?

Random notes:
Bolting for the KHL is a legitimate concern and one you may always have to have with Russians. Even Malkin and Ovechkin are making threats lately. TSN did do a short on Burmistrov and the KHL believe it or not.
About Burmistrov's physicality he did have some moments with Chara and Girardi. Now these hits are nothing to be to crazy gushing over, but if he does end up filling out his frame, that nose for grit with his skill could be quite nice.

Random quotes on Burmistrov:
Hockey Prospectus Top 50 Under 23 in NHL:
Burmistrov is a gifted player who can be a lot of fun to watch when he's on. He is very good with the puck, has high-end hockey sense, and skates well. Usually with players who have the tools, and are as young as Burmistrov, while the production has not yet come, it is a combination of their physical game/getting stronger and playing up to pace that are to blame. Those things tend to come with experience and gym work. Burmistrov has been solid at even-strength, and though he hasn't broken out yet, I see him as a pretty quality player in his prime.
Rob Volman's Player Projections:
Young Alexander Burmistrov got a slightly tougher assignment last year, including more penalty-killing time, and slightly more offensive opportunities, including a little more time with the man advantage... there was one particularly promising match: Ryan O'Reilly. Not only did their OHL scoring levels match, but their first two seasons did as well.
NHL Numbers Burmistrov Profile:
What are Burmistrov's strongest traits?

His puck skills and hockey sense stand out. He's the kind of player who always makes plays with the puck, and his skills shine through consistently. There's also the fact that he's a very quality skater, too.

Conversely, what do you see as his biggest weakness - i.e. what he needs to shore up, before he breaks out?

With kids who have all the tools and it just doesn't click, it's usually a combination of handling the NHL's physicality and pace. Both require experience, but the former requires continuous effort to get stronger. Burmistrov was a little bit of a 'string bean' during his first North American years.

If it could be done all over again, would you have liked to see his progress up the ranks staggered a bit more? Was he rushed to the NHL?

Being drafted out of the OHL, it was either NHL or OHL for his first season. I wasn't all that crazy about him being kept up in 2010-11, although this past year, I think he did fine in the NHL.

I wrote most of this on the weekend but wasn't able to send it out.

Last edited by garret9: 12-29-2012 at 05:10 PM.
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