: Blue Jays Discussion:
Offseason Madness the 7th: Jose Reyes edition
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11-27-2012, 08:58 PM
Join Date: Jul 2008
Originally Posted by
33+33+32+32+32=162. Therefore, ignoring all other factors, if you went consistently through the rotation all season, 3, 4 and 5 would all be out one start vs 1 and 2.
Again, IMO, "better" is a relative term. You view power and dominating stuff to be "better". I prefer consistency and durability. I'm not saying you're wrong, but just that, personally, I prefer a consistent inning eater over a power guy at the front of the rotation (though I'd obviously take a consistent power guy over a consistent finesse guy every time).
For the record, I ignored Johnson's 9-start 2011 season.
Regardless of how little weight I give ERA in the first place, the large reason for that difference is Romero's grotesque 5.77 ERA from last year. Cut that out and Romero's 3.60 ERA is still a significant 0.43 lower than Johnson's ERA from his 5 full seasons (2006, 2008-2010, 2012), and 0.45 lower than Johnson's career ERA.
I don't doubt that you're probably right, but I'd still put my money on the sure thing rather than the potential to be better than sure thing. Just my opinion.
I prefer the standardized and easier to quantify WHIP stat to consider who is a better pitcher than the WAR stat.
To demonstrate, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Johnson's WAR from the last 4 seasons is 19.1, while Buehrle's is 15.3, a difference of 3.8, where your numbers are a difference of 4.6. I'm not sure how that changes for a league-wide system, as they don't rank by stats for a period of time, but I'm sure there's some decent movement up or down for both.
Useing WHIP to determine who is the better pitcher is extremely flawed. Last season Ervin Santana had a better WHIP then YU Darvish.....Does that mean that Ervin Santana was the better pitcher of the 2 last season?
Let's say your numbers are accurate and over the past 4 seasons they have been divided by 3.8, thats basically the difference between someone like Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. Thats the difference between someone like David Price and Mark Buerhle. Regardless of how significant you think 4 war over 4 years is, Johnson has put up the better statistical stretch during that period even if hes been more inconsistant.
Josh Johnson is the better pitcher.
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