Thread: Blue Jays Discussion: Offseason Madness the 7th: Jose Reyes edition
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11-27-2012, 10:44 PM
  #772
Quik
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
You have yet to adequately convince me of that.
Last 3 full seasons for each:

Buerhle
Year | ERA+ | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2010 | 100 | 3.90 | 4.49 | 2.02 | 70.2 | .313 | +0.2 |
2011 | 121 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 2.42 | 73.3 | .294 | -0.9 |
2012 | 106 | 4.18 | 4.17 | 3.13 | 74.8 | .270 | -1.0 |
CAREER | 119 | 4.14 | 4.22 | 2.52 | 72.5 | 2.89 | 85.9 |

Johnson
Year | ERA+ | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2009 | 133 | 3.06 | 3.36 | 3.29 | 74.9 | .290 | +0.9 |
2010 | 180 | 2.41 | 3.32 | 3.88 | 79.2 | .297 | +0.7 |
2012 | 104 | 3.40 | 3.73 | 2.54 | 71.9 | .302 | -1.2 |
CAREER | 133 | 3.20 | 3.57 | 2.70 | 75.4 | .297 | 94.0 |

So yeah, based on some of the more telling indicators, besides the eye test and without going too deep into advanced stats, Johnson is a better pitcher than Buerhle. This doesn't take anything away from Buerhle, who's been a solid 2-3 guy the past few years, and is definitely the more durable/consistent of the 2, but JJ is still the better pitcher.

The drop in Johnson's velo is also less concerning considering he had mechanic issues that could have caused the drop, whereas Buerhle is more likely to continue dropping.

Edit: Also added ERA+ which regulates at 100 for average pitchers...


Last edited by Quik: 11-27-2012 at 11:02 PM. Reason: added career totals + ERA+
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