Thread: Blue Jays Discussion: Offseason Madness the 7th: Jose Reyes edition
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11-27-2012, 10:06 PM
  #774
Leafsdude7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quik View Post
Last 3 full seasons for each:

Buerhle
Year | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2010 | 3.90 | 4.49 | 2.02 | 70.2 | .313 | +0.2 |
2011 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 2.42 | 73.3 | .294 | -0.9 |
2012 | 4.18 | 4.17 | 3.13 | 74.8 | .270 | -1.0 |
CAREER | 4.14 | 4.22 | 2.52 | 72.5 | 2.89 | 85.9 |

Johnson
Year | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | LOB% | BABIP | FB velo variance from career norm
2009 | 3.06 | 3.36 | 3.29 | 74.9 | .290 | +0.9 |
2010 | 2.41 | 3.32 | 3.88 | 79.2 | .297 | +0.7 |
2012 | 3.40 | 3.73 | 2.54 | 71.9 | .302 | -1.2 |
CAREER | 3.20 | 3.57 | 2.70 | 75.4 | .297 | 94.0 |

So yeah, based on some of the more telling indicators, besides the eye test and without going too deep into advanced stats, Johnson is a better pitcher than Buerhle. This doesn't take anything away from Buerhle, who's been a solid 2-3 guy the past few years, and is definitely the more durable/consistent of the 2, but JJ is still the better pitcher.

The drop in Johnson's velo is also less concerning considering he had mechanic issues that could have caused the drop, whereas Buerhle is more likely to continue dropping.
Considering that Buehrle has always been a finesse pitcher and even in his best years had a fastball that peaked at about 92 and averaged around 86, I fail to see how having his fastball slow down is that relevant, especially since 2010 was easily the worst year he had out of the 3 you listed.

Of course, when it comes down to it, it's simply that my definition of "better" (where a better pitcher to me means more experience and consistency, not necessarily the quality of their stuff and short term numbers) is different than weems and yours.

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