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11-29-2012, 11:08 AM
  #857
Blind Gardien
nexus of the crisis
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Conclusion To the dreamers here who keep talking about top five to ten picks: You'd better hope we play this year. Otherwise, to those here who keep bringing up top ten picks, stop talking about top ten picks, and start talking about 15-30th picks, because that is what Habs will have if there is no season.
Far too strongly worded. When we don't know what the system would be for determining the draft order - let alone if there even will be a draft - it's impossible to state where we *will* pick. It's not automatic that they go to the Crosby draft formula. But that seemed like a reasonably fair formula, if they did have to make up for another lost season. Habs would have something like a 23% chance of a top-10 pick under that formula. 10.74% of picking top-5. 2% chance of #1 overall.

But of course, there's a chance there will be no draft at all. In which case, maybe that improves our odds of just signing good talent? Drouin is a Habs fan, non? Maybe a CBA-less free-for-all is something we should hope for!

And then there's a chance there will be a season, in which case our odds are probably better than the snake draft, given that our team is typically expected to have a less-than-average chance of making the playoffs. But that's all up in the air until the games are actually played, so who knows.

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