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11-30-2012, 01:03 AM
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Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think that gives the Blues over a 50% expected chance of being chosen by pick 13 and for as good as they were, a monstrous chance of landing in the top 10 (not quite 40%). Nearly as cool, they have Ottawa's 2nd rounder from the Ben Bishop deal and Ottawa would only have one ball in the lotto, and because of the snake-style draft, that could give the Blues a high second rounder.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but right now I believe the 1st pick would be the only one we can really figure a percentage on(4%)since our odds would gradually increase depending on which teams were chosen before us and how many balls those teams were assigned. But, in the 2005 draft nearly 40% of balls were gone by the first 10 picks and nearly 60% were gone by the first 15. Also, in this case, 7 teams would have 3 balls and 6 teams would have 2. So, those teams would account for 66% or 2/3 of the total ball count. I think that could possibly result in more balls being removed early on giving us an even higher chance of recieving a top pick. BTW that's awesome that we have Ottawa's 2nd round pick. I completely forgot about that. There are sure to be some definite sleepers in this draft class.

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