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11-30-2012, 02:26 AM
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Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
The way they did it last lockout, every pick was assigned three balls and lost a number of balls depending on how its original owner performed in the last four years, with a minimum of one ball per pick. A pick/team loses a ball for each time they've made the playoffs in the last three years and each time they've picked first overall in the last four years.

Also worth noting that it's a snake draft, not 1-30, repeat.

Assuming they do it the same way this time around, the Blues lose one ball for making the playoffs last season and that's it. There are seven teams with three balls, six teams with two, and seventeen teams with one ball each, for a total of 50 balls, two of which represent a single selection for the Blues.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think that gives the Blues over a 50% expected chance of being chosen by pick 13 and for as good as they were, a monstrous chance of landing in the top 10 (not quite 40%). Nearly as cool, they have Ottawa's 2nd rounder from the Ben Bishop deal and Ottawa would only have one ball in the lotto, and because of the snake-style draft, that could give the Blues a high second rounder.
Interesting. I didn't realize it was/would be a snake draft.

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