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11-30-2012, 04:10 AM
I Bleed Blue
rumrokh's Avatar
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Originally Posted by h22prelude93 View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong, but right now I believe the 1st pick would be the only one we can really figure a percentage on(4%)since our odds would gradually increase depending on which teams were chosen before us and how many balls those teams were assigned. But, in the 2005 draft nearly 40% of balls were gone by the first 10 picks and nearly 60% were gone by the first 15. Also, in this case, 7 teams would have 3 balls and 6 teams would have 2. So, those teams would account for 66% or 2/3 of the total ball count. I think that could possibly result in more balls being removed early on giving us an even higher chance of recieving a top pick. BTW that's awesome that we have Ottawa's 2nd round pick. I completely forgot about that. There are sure to be some definite sleepers in this draft class.
It is correct that with each pick, if the Blues aren't selected, the chance of the next pick being the Blues is higher.
So, they have precisely a 4% chance of being first overall. Assuming they don't get the first pick, there are three scenarios for the second pick: 49 balls remain, 48 balls remain, or 47 balls remain. In each scenario, the Blues have just over a 4% chance to get the second pick.
However, if you're looking at their total chance of getting the second pick, it's actually under 4% because of their chance of getting the first pick.

The numbers I mentioned in the previous post are the chance that they'll be picked by a certain point, not their chances of having a particular pick, assuming they have not yet been selected.

As a matter of fact, a friend of mine recently cooked this up:

x axis represents picks and y axis represents the chance of selection. Red is 3 balls, blue is 2 balls, and black is 1 ball. Two balls, as with other things in life, are awesomely (technical term) better than one is.

But knowing the Blues' historical luck, they'll implement a new system.

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