View Single Post
Old
11-30-2012, 02:23 PM
  #27
DaveG
Mod Supervisor
How's the thesis?
 
DaveG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Durham NC
Country: United States
Posts: 34,220
vCash: 562
so breaking it down farther:

top 5:
8 of 44 forwards didn't pan out (.181)
5 of 21 dmen didn't pan out (.238)
all 5 goalies panned out... shockingly. People can argue semantics with DP, but he was a starter for the Isles for a while and a pretty solid one at that.
overall 13 of 70 picks in that span were busts (.186)

6 through 10:
here it starts to get dicey
20 of 46 forwards didn't pan out (.465)
9 of 18 dmen didn't pan out (.500)
all 6 goalies did not pan out
overall, selecting in this zone over the 1994-07 time frame meant batting .500

11 through 15:
24 of 46 forwards selected didn't pan out (.522)
7 of 18 dmen selected didn't pan out (.389)
3 of 6 goalies selected didn't pan out (.500)
34 of 70 picks in this range over that time didn't pan out (.486)
#15 overall pick was particularly a death sentence spot, as only 2 weren't complete misses and one of those two was Radulov.

16 through 20:
34 of 46 forwards didn't pan out (.739)
8 of 21 dmen didn't pan out (.381)
2 of 3 goalies didn't pan out (.667)
44 of 70 players selected in this range did not pan out (.629) basically leaving teams slightly better then 1 in 3 chance of selecting a solid contributor to their team here.

21 through 25:
17 of 37 forwards didn't pan out (.459)
14 of 23 dmen didn't pan out (.609)
5 of 10 goalies didn't pan out (.500)
36 of 70 picks in this draft range didn't pan out (.514), though the question is why it's so much better then the 16-20 zone. Great place to pick a goalie if you're taking one in the first round.

26 through 30:
20 of 30 forwards didn't pan out (.667)
22 of 32 dmen didn't pan out (.688)
5 of 8 goalies didn't pan out (.625)
overall 47 of 70 (.671) selected in this range did not pan out.
#30 is the only draft position worse then #15, with all but 1 being a total bust, and that one (Daron Quint) wasn't a star by any stretch.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx 1994-07 drafts.xlsx‎ (13.4 KB, 7 views)

DaveG is online now   Reply With Quote