2012 CBA/Lockout talk, Part the Fifth
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11-30-2012, 03:33 PM
Join Date: Aug 2005
Mr. DKH -
>>Black Eye what day do you think the owners have in mind to pull the plug? There has to be a specific day....December 15th? January 1st? January 15th?
I think last time it was in early February? I think there's plenty of time to go. My skepticism is due to 1) Fehr, 2) the hard line posturing and bitterness. But this could turn around, there's got to be a good 6 weeks before it's totally dire. The signs don't look good to me but they're not out of time yet.
>>also, since this board is overwhelmingly convinced there will not be a season what do those think the landscape looks like next year?
1. how many teams go out of business?
Same as last time. 0. Maybe 1-2 teams move due to lease issues but I don't expect contraction.
>>2. do the Bruins lose their fan base and return to 12-15,000 per game?
I'd say they probably stay where they've been. Decent building, good team, media likes the team these days, usually a good brand of hockey being played. It would surprise me if 25% of the fans really tune out the team. I expect people to come back in the major markets.
>>3. what do you expect the 3.3 B gross revenue to drop to next year
That's hard to say. One thing that has helped the league grow is parity. If the new CBA continues to create parity, with a lot of teams having a shot at the Cup, revenues probably stay in good shape. I really have no way of telling how much fan venting is frustration and emotion versus a real resolve to turn away from the NHL. For me, I hate this lockout and the fact that it seems like part of the NHL reality every 7 years now, but I'll be back. I'm the sucker. Not getting any younger, like Shawn Thornton, any hockey I miss I ain't getting back. So just let me have some NHL hockey again please.
My only frame of reference is what happened after the last lockout. Overall, the league bounced back just fine. There are some rule changes that I think have not really been good for the game/players, but they are all still making lots of money. I can't say why it would not play out the same way again after this lockout. The decertification move is the wild card. I have read the doomsday stories about what that could mean, but who knows if it happens or what it causes if it does.
My current view is that they could lose this season but the league will ultimately survive just fine when they finally sort things out.
Last edited by Black Eye: 11-30-2012 at
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